Gavin Newsom has reason to be concerned

It’s official: for only the fourth time in US history, a state will hold an election on whether to dismiss its governor mid-term. California’s long-awaited re-election is slated for Sept. 14, and 46 candidates (not including Governor himself, Democrat Gavin Newsom) have formally qualified to run. But perhaps the most intriguing development in the race has come in recent polls. After the recall seemed uncompetitive for months, evidence emerged that the race is tightening.

Until last week, there had been no new poll on the recall election for about a month. But since then we’ve had two – and both have shown Newsom is in danger of being recalled. First, an Emerson College / Nexstar Media survey found that 48% of registered voters in California wanted to keep Newsom in power, while 43% wanted to recall him. Then, a poll by the Institute for Government Studies at the University of California at Berkeley, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 50% of voters likely to remember wanted to keep Newsom and 47% wanted to oust him. These new polls – both within the margin of error – differed markedly from a handful of polls released in May and June that found that the recall effort hanging out by at least 10 percentage points.

Who votes in this unusually timed election could be crucial. The UC Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times poll highlighted why: Among registered voters, Republicans were much more likely to say they would vote than Democrats or Independents. Eighty percent of registered Republican voters said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared with just 55 percent of Democrats and about half of Independents. As such, likely voters were opposed to Newsom’s removal by just 3 points, while the gap was much wider among all registered voters – 51% opposed its removal compared to only 36% in favor (in accordance with to the findings of the pollster in early May and late January). In fact, Republicans’ enthusiasm for the race is so high that they make up about a third of the survey’s likely electorate, even though they only make up about a quarter of registered voters in California.

Irregular elections, such as a governor recall held in September of an odd year, can produce unexpected results and unbalanced electorates. However, there’s a reason it might not happen in this race: California has extended its pandemic-inspired election law changes that require ballots to be automatically mailed to all voters. registered active until the end of 2021. The mail-in elections do not in themselves help the Democratic Party, but studies have shown that they increase turnout, which could help isolate Newsom from a scenario where only his the most fervent opponents bother to vote.

It’s tempting to point to COVID-19 as the main reason Newsom has been in hot water since the pandemic helped galvanize the recall effort in the first place. The highly contagious delta variant has led to an increase in COVID-19 cases in California, and Newsom is now questioning whether to impose statewide restrictions, which could further energize his opposition. (Los Angeles County has already reinstated an indoor mask mandate.) The governor has also had disputes with teacher unions and school administrators over the reopening of schools, and many Californians are still frustrated. through the state’s ever-evolving vaccination distribution plan. Yet Newsom’s handling of the pandemic might not be its biggest responsibility. A slightly larger share of likely voters in the Berkeley poll agreed with the statement that Newsom should be recalled “because it failed to adequately address many of the long-standing issues in the world. ‘State’, such as homelessness, income inequality and wildfires (48%), that agreed with the statement that he should be recalled “because he greatly exceeded his authority in as governor in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic ”(44%).

In other words, California voters may be unhappy with the conditions related to COVID-19, but other issues in the state are troubling them as well. So the pandemic may not be solely responsible for what we have seen in the polls.

For his part, Newsom describes the recall as a contest between him and an eruption of Republicans supporting Trump (for example, the governor tried to attribute the growing number of COVID-19 cases to Republicans and the conservative media and their disinformation. on vaccines). But that strategy may be complicated by a July 12 judge’s ruling that Newsom will not be listed as a Democrat on the official recall ballot. Most Californians probably know Newsom is a Democrat, but the fact that his party affiliation was spelled out in black and white could have helped him on the fringes of this very blue state.

The recent developments in the recall have not been all bad news for Newsom. Importantly, his efforts to discourage other prominent Democrats from standing for recall appear to have paid off. Of the 46 candidates vying to replace him, only nine are Democrats – and none are established politicians. On the other hand, 24 Republican candidates are in the running, as well as two candidates from the Greens, one candidate from the Libertarian Party and 10 independents. This means that in the event that Newsom is recalled, it is very likely that a Republican will win the race to replace him (second question on the recall ballot).

If California has a new governor, which Republican is he likely to be? According to the two recent polls, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder has the most support (16% by Emerson, 18% by Berkeley). Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and eternal candidate John Cox make up the second tier, each receiving 6% in the Emerson poll and 10% in the Berkeley poll. Reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner, despite extensive media coverage, barely made the two polls. At this point, however, the race is still very fluid, with the plurality of voters (53% by Emerson, 40% by Berkeley) still not having decided who should replace Newsom.

And, of course, that issue will only come into play if Newsom is recalled. The latest polls suggest a real danger for Newsom, but he is still not in the same troubled territory. Democratic Governor Gray Davis was back in 2003, when Californians voted by 11 points to remove him from office. Polls conducted around the same time during this election cycle found Davis to be in terrible shape: the vote to recall him led by about 20 points or more in most polls, and his rate of approval was in the 1920s. By comparison, Californians are more inclined to retain Newsom, and they tend to approve of his work a little more than they disapprove (among registered voters, the Emerson and Berkeley rate Newsom’s job approval at around 50 percent and disapproval at 42 percent).

Still, Newsom clearly has its work cut out for it to spark Democrats’ interest in the recall vote. And if he fails on that front, an unusual out-of-year electorate might be just enough Republican to kick him out of office.