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Contract negotiations between United Auto Workers and Detroit automakers generally go to the end. But this chance, the chances of a walkout at General Motors are perceived to be pretty much the same.
"It is unlikely that the probability of a strike will be greater than in recent years, which absolutely does not mean that there will be one," said CBS MoneyWatch's Harley Shaiken, a professor of economics. Work relations at the University of California at Berkeley.
The current four-year work contract of GM and UAW expires Saturday at midnight.
"At that moment, we will have a statement indicating whether there is a proposed agreement in principle, an extension or a strike.But for the moment, they are still negotiating," said a spokesman for the UAW to CBS MoneyWatch by email.
A spokesman for GM said talks with the union group were "progressing".
When negotiations between the UAW and GM began in July, the parties were far apart on issues such as wages and job security, Shaiken said. "Members are particularly restive, and UAW leaders must not just negotiate a contract, they must ratify it."
The UAW said earlier this month that more than 96 percent of GM workers voted to authorize the strike.
Related Video: The FBI raids the home of the president of the UAW
Stagnant wages
According to Kristin Dziczek, vice president of the Center for Automotive Research's "Workforce and Industry Economics" group, average hourly wages in the US automotive industry have reached their peak. in 2010 and have since decreased by about 2%, or 16%. UAW senior workers received two wage increases of 3% during this period.
Along with rising wages, the UAW wants to limit the number of temporary workers GM can use, which this year accounted for about 7 percent of its US workforce. Temporary workers are paid only $ 15 per hour. Executives hired by GM before 2007 earn between $ 30 and $ 33 per hour, while new hires after 2007 start at about $ 17 an hour, with an eight-year increase to become senior.
"You could earn $ 33 and the person next door will earn $ 15 an hour as a temporary worker," Shaiken said, noting that multiple wage levels and statuses could weaken union solidarity.
Prepare for the strike
Both the union and GM have the opportunity to go on strike, with the UAW preparing its members for a potential walkout and GM increasing its vehicle inventory in anticipation of a slowdown in production.
"Historically, when the Detroit automakers have a strike, they do not try to run the factories, unlike other industries," Shaiken said. "One thing they can do is increase inventory: the more cars there are on dealerships, the longer they can stay when a strike goes off."
Automakers are striving to have at least 60 days of vehicles, and GM currently has 77 days, Shaiken said.
The last attack against GM took place in 2007 and ended after two days. Since then, American motorists have purchased a record number of new vehicles and GM has made record profits, buying back $ 10 billion of inventory since it went bankrupt in 2009.
The UAW is looking for more of this cake and the fight against the closure of four US plants. GM, however, is preparing for an economic downturn in the coming years and is resisting efforts by the UAW that would increase its long-term costs.
GM said most of its investments are in the United States, where it operates 33 plants, compared with four in Mexico.
A federal corruption inquiry into the union adds another point of tension. The FBI's raids last month on the homes of Gary Jones, the current president of United Auto Workers, and his predecessor, have shown the dramatic escalation of a four-year investigation into payments. illegal. The investigation of corruption has so far resulted in the conviction of eight people. On Thursday, a regional director of the UAW was accused of embezzling union funds as part of the government's broader investigation.
"While these allegations are very worrisome, we firmly believe that the government has misinterpreted a number of facts and point out that it is only allegations and not evidence of any". wrongdoing, "said the UAW in a statement. "We will not let this distract us from the ongoing critical negotiations with GM to get better wages and benefits for the more than 400,000 members of our union."
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