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Frankfurt If you want to know how the actions of automobile companies are developing, you have to follow the trials and tribulations of the trade dispute. Since US President Donald Trump announced his favorite twitter in mid-May, to review the higher tariffs on car imports into the United States, the corresponding stocks have fallen – especially those of German companies that export a lot to the states -United. [19659002] On Thursday, hopes of a turnaround in the tariff dispute caused an increase in auto stocks by six percent. At a meeting of BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen leaders with US ambbadador Richard Grenell in Berlin, Mr Grenell said, according to information from Handelsblatt, that the United States was ready to abandon all cars if Europe did it too. is so good, however, must be questioned. At the same time, the trade conflict between the United States and China is intensifying. On Friday, states want to impose duties on imports worth $ 34 billion. This could put pressure on all stock markets, including automakers.
The price / earnings ratio is extremely low
Auto share prices and many suppliers have fallen since mid-May. The shares of Daimler, BMW and VW collapsed in the top 20% even more clearly than the broad market. The shares of Daimler, VW and BMW currently cost a little over six to seven times their expected annual profits. The price / earnings ratio (P / E) is therefore extremely low for the three German car manufacturers. Frank Biller says rather no: "If the 20% tax announced by Trump in June actually comes to car imports, car exports to the United States will not be profitable for local businesses," warns. badyst of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW). He says, "Companies lack planning and uncertainty is great – so it's no wonder the stock is so under pressure."
The numbers are really scary: Daimler almost scored Last year 25% of sales in the United States, at BMW, were 17%. VW accounted for nearly 17% of its sales in North America. Nevertheless, Jürgen Pieper, an auto expert at Bankhaus Metzler, believes the market reaction is too dramatic and the price / earnings ratios are too low. Markus Wallner, equity strategist at Commerzbank, also believes that the mbadive sales of car stocks are exaggerated: "Of course, German carmakers in particular would suffer from US import duties, but companies also produce a lot in the United States , which relativises everything "
Pieper proves with figures from the German Automobile Industry Association:" VW, BMW and Daimler sold 16 million vehicles last year – but only a little less than 500,000 of Germany exported to the United States. "Sales of up to 25 percent of the US manufacturer in the United States."
With rates of 20 percent, the three German manufacturers together would likely sell only 100,000 fewer cars in the United States, Pieper believes, especially BMW and Daimler with Mercedes could at least partially increase their prices with their premium brands, because buyers of luxury cars are not so price sensitive.At VW, this applies at least for Audi.
Overall, a 20% fine would only reduce the profits of the big three by about three percent, Pieper said. "In addition, according to Wallner, German automakers in the United States United also benefit from the tax reform, "which alleviates the pain of possible tariffs."
However, it's not just the commercial dispute that haunts motor vehicle owners.The scandal of diesel n & # 39; is always not fully recovered even after nearly three years, penalizing the penalties and recalling the campaigns. To this are added new test procedures for exhaust gas tests, which delay the production of car manufacturers. "All this mixed situation ensures that auto share prices are so low, Trump is currently the biggest risk for auto companies," says LBBW's Biller
Companies Earn Well
Pieper also sees it this way "Even if the profits of the big German car companies fall by five to seven percent throughout the year, it is still much less than the markets with their collapse. from up to 20 percent suggest. "
Pieper therefore considers that it is wrong to sell car shares He sees explicit entry opportunities among the leading German automakers at VW.Biller of LBBW has for risk-averse investors VW and Daimler on the recommendation list.Walder does not give specific recommendations for individual securities but points out, "Functionally, automakers are doing very well, but you do not see it in the rating."
In fact, auto companies have been making a lot of money recently. Electromobility required in the coming years Last year, BMW, Daimler and VW recorded record profits.Even with the latest sales figures, you do not see always no sign of slowing down. Although Daimler frightened his shareholders about fifteen years ago with a profit warning – but this is less due to commercial rates than to operational problems with new emissions tests, Wallner says. .
Are car stocks so clear? Unfortunately not. The danger lies less in the rights of the pure car than in escalating trade conflict between the United States and Europe and between the United States and China. According to economists, a full-fledged trade war could trigger a recession as after the global financial crisis. In this scenario, not only the car titles, but all the stocks would crush considerably.
