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It was just a worrying statement from a presidential candidate just before the elections: he would not accept the result that he was himself the winner, announced Jair Bolsonaro. In the case of the right-wing far right, this statement probably surprised only a few – in the past, he had already glorified the Brazilian military dictatorship, announced purges and pleaded for deeds torture and acts of violence.
In fact, Bolsonaro, with his mixture of hatred, hardness and agitation, could well become the winner of the democratic elections in Brazil: this Sunday, he will be the favorite of the second round of the largest country in Latin America. In recent polls, he had clearly won 54 to 55 percent of the vote, ahead of rival Fernando Haddad of the left-wing PT labor party, with 44 percent to 45 percent. However Haddad could catch up last.
For many of the 120 million eligible Brazilians, the election is not only the most important since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, but also one of the most difficult: first, there is fear of dictatorship – but, on the other hand, the choice between a party representing workers and the tropics "hard.Because of the need for elections of Brazil, the percentage of void votes could be high.The most important issues at a glance.
What subjects determined the election campaign?
Brazil has been suffering from a serious political and economic crisis for years. Millions of Brazilians lost their jobs during the recession, the school system is run down and unfair, public health care is poor in many places. In addition, violence in the country has continued to increase, with more than 60,000 people dying in the past year alone. Public security and corruption are therefore the issues of concern to Brazilians. Added to this are education, health care and economic recovery.
For a long time, however, in the election campaign, there was a particular question: can the once-popular and hated ex-president, Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, compete again in October? His candidacy had been announced by Lula outside the prison cell and he had run the polls long before Bolsonaro. But in September, the Supreme Electoral Court voted against Lula's approval. Haddad took his place – and he behaved well, 29% voted for him in the first round of voting on October 8th.
Since then, Haddad has separated from his model, Lula. An important step to convince critics of the PT and Lula Labor Party in the last election. Because many Brazilians are disappointed with the party and the ex-president, they are responsible for corruption and the crisis.
Bolsonaro takes advantage of this rejection: some would prefer to give him his vote rather than vote for the PT. But he also has his own: Bolsonaro is extremely popular, especially among the middle clbades and upper white clbades, evangelicals, entrepreneurs and landowners.
In the video: Racist and Homophobic – Why Bolsonaro Still Has Success
What threatens Bolsonaro?
Bolsonaro has clearly autocratic tendencies, he glorifies and minimizes the military dictatorship. With him, about 30 years after the end of the reign of the military dictatorship, he wants to attract the law on arms and give the police more powers in the fight against violence. He also announced a more severe crackdown on offenders and wants to reduce the punishable offense. The success of Bolsonaro could also be fatal for the environment: it wants to put an end to the agreement of Paris on the climate, to facilitate the protection of the environment in the Amazon and to oppose to the development native protected areas.
Will Brazil become a dictatorship under Bolsonaro?
A Bolsonaros electoral victory would be definitely worrying and would pose a threat to the young Brazilian democracy. But despite all the corruption and legitimate mistrust of the Brazilian parties, politicians, courts and the police, despite Bolsonaro, will not govern completely after taking office. In Brazil, the president must renegotiate the majority of the government before any important vote in Congress. there is no fractional obstacle nor five percent.
In the face of dozens of parties, most of whom sit in parliament, majorities are likely to be bought. But it is also an opportunity for the opposition to arrest the president.
The democratic institutions of the country have proven in the past that they can control politicians. The judiciary has worked for years on the biggest corruption scandal "Lava Jato" (car wash). It also addresses politicians, many of whom – like former president Lula – are serving a prison sentence.
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