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In early August, the United States reintroduced the first sanctions against Iran. This includes trading in gold and precious metals, acquiring US dollars and importing aircraft from pbadengers and aircraft parts. The second round of sanctions is expected to hit the Tehran government even more. For the moment, US President Donald Trump is targeting Iran's main activities: the oil sector and the banking sector.
On Monday morning at 0:00 (5:00 CEST), the most recent measurements take effect. They are another consequence of the announcement in May of the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran. The purpose of the sanctions is that no country will import any more oil from Iran. The same goes for international payments with Tehran. Washington leverage: Those who do not comply with the sanctions will not be allowed to do business with the United States.
This will make the new sanctions a problem not only for Tehran but also for some of Washington's international partners. And for Trump, that means a new diplomatic challenge. The question is: how does the American president treat countries that continue to import Iranian oil despite the sanctions?
Exemptions for eight countries
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had a first indication of his actions on Friday. He said that there should be exemptions for a total of eight countries, which could initially continue to supply oil to Iran.
The government does not want to announce this kind of country until Monday. However, according to Pompeo, a member of the EU is not there. Turkey has however indicated that it will continue to trade with Iran.
In any case, the United States is facing a tightrope on Monday because of oil sanctions.
- On the one hand, Trump wants to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. The situation in the Islamic Republic is characterized by high prices, a high unemployment rate and demonstrations as a result. A new economic slowdown would also weaken the regime. If Tehran wants to avoid sanctions, it must complete a list of twelve requests. Among other things, according to Pompeo's statement, Iran should stop supporting terrorism, as well as the military deployment in Syria and its nuclear and missile program.
- On the other hand, Trump needs to badess how much he wants to accept that his sanctions also affect other countries. He is already alone with his Iranian policies. Germany, France, Britain, Russia, China and the European Union want to stick to the nuclear deal, even without the United States, and try to avoid the penalties. One of the options is what is called a special vehicle, which should allow a legal trade with Iran in a roundabout way, without direct cash flow.
We come now to the many existing differences, even on the difficult subject of added oil. South Korea, Turkey, India, China: These are all countries that receive a large amount of raw material from Iran – and can no longer get by overnight.
Although many importers have been reacting for some time, pressure from the United States has reduced the volume of Iranian oil exports for months. The Bloomberg financial news agency recently announced that Tehran was exporting only 1.72 million barrels of oil and condensate (a very light oil) a day in October, its lowest level in February 2016. In April, just before abandoning the nuclear deal with Trump – According to Bloomberg, Iran exported 2.87 million barrels a day.
Temporary solution – nothing more
But it is still far from the American goal. From Washington's point of view, it should be zero in the long run. A direct escalation of Trump may have been avoided by the first exceptions. In the run-up to the US decision, India, Turkey and China had already openly announced their opposition to sanctions, while South Korea demanded "maximum flexibility".
After all, Trump has granted this in eight cases. For the moment. Because special permits are likely to be a temporary solution. It is only when this regulation is published that the diplomatic consequences of the latest sanctions for the United States will also be clear.
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