Markus Weinzierl at VfB Stuttgart: the new broom has not arrived yet – VfB Stuttgart

By Gregory Preiss November 27, 2018 – 4:16 pm

Stuttgart – The bar was high. 13 points on the first five games, that's the starting balance of Tayfun Korkut. With Christian Gross, he was the most successful new coach in the club's recent history at VfB Stuttgart. Thomas Schneider (eleven points), Markus Babbel (ten), Hannes Wolf (ten / second division), Jens Keller (eight), Huub Stevens (eight / second VfB commitment), Jürgen Kramny (eight), Stevens (seven / first commitment) ).

See here the starting balance of the new coaches VfB

The old adage of the good new broom in the vast majority of cases at VfB. Markus Weinzierl does not like the results of his many predecessors. It makes the total contrast program: five games, four defeats (against powerful opponents), one win. The new broom is not coming yet. Has the effect of the coaching change already gone?

At least, the old Augsburg has not yet turned the corner for the better. The tender hope that sprouted after the 2-0 draw in Nuremberg was evaporated a little further after the Leverkusen match (0-2). Playful improvements can only be recognized in certain ways. And this Saturday (15.30) is against FC Augsburg – paradoxically, the opponent, who has already had three times the coach of the killer at VfB Stuttgart. Three times with Markus Weinzierl on the bench.

A bad omen? The fact is that the 43-year-old remains firmly in the saddle despite his poor starting balance in Stuttgart. The sports management is always convinced of his work. Weinzierl does well with his calm and badytical nature – like a rock in the rough waves, so to speak. The coach himself contradicts the impression that he did not know what he was getting into at VfB. He is absolutely at peace with himself, they say.

At least, it gives hope that VfB has exhausted its coaching change potential for the moment (and not as the second division fielder of FC Ingolstadt, already the second coach on leave this season) and with Weinzierl. Finally. Until now, the bottom of the table is only in the upper chamber. Just a coach pitch after twelve days of matches – that was the last time six years ago.

Study: coaching changes will not bring more long-term success

This leads to the question of how much the instructor exchange is designed – in the short and long term. In the short term, Rochaden gets the desired result on the coaching bank. With an average of 6.8 points, the Bundesliga coach was forced to be in the top five. The balance for a midfield place. Taking into account the fact that most teams in the lower half of the table are resorting to this measure, the saying of the new broom and quick cleaning is therefore quite his reason for being.

But what about the long-term effect? There is an interesting study. Professor of Physics Andreas Heuer of the University of Münster (subject: Complex Systems) examined 154 trainee positions in the Bundesliga from 1963 to 2009. He concludes: "In the long run, it will not help to change coach. "

Here is the big situation badysis at VfB

The physicist and football fan explains this by a phenomenon he calls "regression to the middle". Concretely, this means that luck and bad luck will eventually balance. This factor finds in the opinion of the scientist in the consideration of sports achievements too little attention. In the process, success and failure usually do not come from the athletic quality (missing), but just as much of the famous five centimeters as the ball hits the goal or just the post. Because you can not always be unlucky, at one point it automatically works better for teams with initial failures, Heuer found. His conclusion: "Better results are achieved without change of coach." Because nothing is as consistent in football as the expulsion of unselected coaches, his study published seven years ago has lost none of its relevance, Heuer said.

Transferred to VfB would mean that Tayfun Korkut's team currently does not look worse. And for Markus Weinzierl? How does the failed launch let hope that the wind is still turning?

Florian Kohfeldt (two defeats of the first three games with Bremen) or Markus Gisdol (a point in the first five games as an HSV coach) are examples of start-up problems that could well lead to a long series of successes. Even in Stuttgart, the new brooms have not always been a success: Bruno Labbadia met in 2010 to launch two generous bankruptcies against Bayern Munich (Bundesliga and Cup). Nevertheless, he is the oldest VfB coach of this decade.