Bitcoin falls again – now threatens the long "crypto winter"

There are no new concrete reasons for lower prices on Tuesday. Rather the rest existing problems virulent:

• The split of Bitcoin Cash sister currency failed. In the dispute over future development, the community was divided. The next "hard fork", namely the division into two competing parts, ended in a disaster. Bitcoin Cash had reached its highest level of about $ 4,000, but was down about 8% Tuesday at $ 176.
• Bad news prevails especially in the area of ​​state supervision. According to a study published Tuesday by the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, 88% of the chips issued in the context of virtual IPOs in 2017 are lower than the issue price. And with failed projects like Envion, investors could even suffer a total loss.

In order for the fall in prices to reach its bottom and that there is a powerful counter-movement, a positive news necessary. The first silver bands on the horizon are the subject of lively discussions in the cryptographic scene, even if their real meaning is controversial:

• The US technology exchange, Nasdaq, wants to remain faithful to its future Bitcoins project despite the recent fall in prices. This reports the Bloomberg news agency. Contracts are expected to begin in the first quarter of 2019. Of course, many investors do not want a new futures contract, but an exchange-traded fund (ETF), whose approval was again denied by US regulator SEC November. Bitcoin futures have been on Chicago stock exchanges since 2017 and demand is stable at a low level.
• We now search more often "Bitcoin" in Google, as shown by the statistics of the largest search engine in the world. In the past, the price has steadily increased with the search frequency on Google. The current figures could also speak of increased interest in the currency crash, more or less negative voyeurism.
• Marginal progress has been made in public recognition of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin. For example, citizens of the state of Ohio would be able to quickly settle their tax claims in Bitcoin. However, this is unlikely to affect the global market.

Faced with this situation, how does the downward trend in Bitcoin rates over the past few days explain? External news seems to play only a minor role. The influence of investor psychology is all the more important.

However, investors in the field of cryptography for the first time, like Darius Karampoor, see another factor that shifts markets. "Much of the recent crash is with the Behavior of minors explain, "says Internet entrepreneur Kiel.

"For a long time, the magic limit for a lucrative mining operation was about $ 6,000," says Karampoor. As the price fluctuated around the brand throughout the summer, many miners supported it by launching some new parts and tightening the offer.

Their fixed costs, especially the electricity bills, they paid off their cash reserves. "When they were exhausted, the first miners started to throw coins on the market," says Karampoor. When others followed, he had come to a sale.

In the month of November, hashrate, which indicates the computing power of the Bitcoin network, has been reduced by almost half. This means that almost half of the miners have given up. Mao Shixing, chief executive of F2pool, based in Beijing, estimates that 600 to 800,000 miners left the market in Coindesk. Some have scrapped entire rooms of old mining equipment.

Less efficient suppliers with higher electricity costs seem to be particularly affected. The most efficient players could now "hibernate" at lower prices, predicts Karampoor – and use new equipment as the price goes up. The fall in prices could therefore lead to a necessary adjustment of the market.

Skeptics such as Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics in the United States, who believes that the "fair price" of Bitcoin is below zero euro due to high energy consumption, s & # 39; Expect an upcoming collapse of the cryptography market.

But the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), which caused a sensation in 2017 with Blockchain's first promissory note, leads to a different conclusion. "The problems of Bitcoin are many and well known: a great energy inefficiency, the lack of realization of monetary functions as well as the competition of other Krypto Token are the price," says LBBW economist Guido Zimmermann. . "Bitcoin, but should continue to exist only by its importance," says his prognosis.

This expectation is not exaggerated. With the exception of gold, few products on the financial market are defended with as much pbadion as crypto-currencies. Enthusiasts like Robert Küfner, founder of the Advanced Blockchain blockbuster and guru of the Berlin crypto scene, continue to marvel: "Blockchain technology will make the world a better place, it has Biblical proportions," he says. And adds, referring to the mysterious inventor of Bitcoin, "Satoshi Nakamoto came to earth as Jesus 2.0 to rid humanity of the scourge of centralization."

According to Küfner, the vision of eliminating intermediaries such as financial institutions and central banks is still topical. In the long run, he plans a six-digit Bitcoin course. "The demonstrative funeral crypto taking place is premature, we already know it."

The truth is, the crypto-currency of death has often been predicted, and yet it has been repeated many times. But it is also true: Bitcoin experiences periods of lasting weakness. Thus, the price has stopped during the long "crypto winter" from 2014 to 2017 to less than $ 500. Maybe a new ice age is about to happen. It could take a long time.