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Aral and the Institute for Transport Research of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) have prepared a study on the 2040 mobility in Germany and the resulting changes in the service station sector. On the basis of the results, Aral now publishes a vision of "the service station of the future in the big city".
According to DLR badysis, the Germans will cover 900 billion kilometers by car and utility vehicle in 2040, a quarter more than in 2010. This means a significant increase in mileage, despite the fact that the number of people decreased by 4.7 million over the same period. is. The reason is a more mobile, older society and the sharp increase in logistics.
Commercial vehicles will cover double kilometers in 2040, even in large cities. This is mainly due to the growth of e-commerce and the growing performance of freight transport (up 87%). Pbadenger transport will also increase in the city (over 77%), while private car traffic will decrease by five percentage points. The new mobility service providers, which support this transport service due to the growing supply of autonomous vehicles, are an explanation. According to the DLR, by 2040, they will already represent 25% of the total fleet.
New mix of discs
The combination of future drive technologies is a key factor in the development of mobility and service station offerings. According to the DLR, cars will increasingly use hybrid propulsion in 2040. In this segment, petrol and diesel hybrids would prevail at 68% for new car registrations. Even plug-in hybrids with a purely electric limited range would see sales increase (28%).
According to DLR calculations, two-thirds of the total number of vehicles are gasoline or diesel vehicles, including hybrid propulsion. But also pure electric drives have progressed. Without changes in the political environment, 1.3 million electric cars would be on the roads in the future. Of the number of commercial vehicles growing rapidly in 2040, 13% will be powered by electricity.
"The petrol station will certainly continue to play an important role in our mobility in the future.With new features, it can become a hub in our daily lives" – but there will be changes in the future. offer, so the conclusion of Barbara Lenz DLR. The three clbadic pillars of the fuel industry, workshops and car wash have been retained, but they must be adapted to changing technologies and changing customer needs.
Opportunities for the service station of the future
In the fuel sector, the number of distributors will be reduced in favor of charging stations, according to DLR. With more electric vehicles and improved technology, they are also economical in the operation of service stations. This concerns in particular the "ultra-fast charging" columns of a maximum power of 350 kW, in which the battery of appropriate electric cars can be charged in five minutes for a maximum range of 145 km. In addition, future tank robots could support refueling or fueling.
"We will continue to score points in the coming decades with high quality advanced fuels, which increasingly include biocomponents or synthetic fuels, and thus make an important contribution to the growing mobility of our society", commented Patrick Wendeler, CEO of Aral, in the study. In the future mix of fuels, natural gas and LPG would offer "additional potential".
The stores sector will also develop according to customer needs, says Aral. Autonomous vehicles could deliver goods from the store to their homes by "home delivery". In the integrated coffee zones, customers were offered a range of ready meals before leaving with a pooling vehicle provided at the service station.
New mobility services
According to Aral, new branches of activity will see the light of day at the service station of the city. Autonomous vehicle services, which customers can use on demand, are an important trend for the future. In the city, a strong demand is expected. These fleet operators' vehicles would be available on request at the service station and could also be serviced and cleaned on site. The space required for this would be covered by a multi-storey building.
Moving from an autonomous fleet vehicle to a rented electric bike or an existing air taxi is also part of Aral's vision for the big city. For the growing number of electric bicycles and electric scooters, battery change stations will be installed at service stations. Private drivers and commercial delivery services could exchange empty voids for fully charged batteries. Another change could be the expansion of parcel stations. For business people, meeting rooms and mobile offices are also possible.
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