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The exit of Britain from the EU without an agreement was considered a horrific scenario for a long time. But this has been different since Thursday at the latest: the European Commission has warned the authorities of the Member States and the economy to prepare for all scenarios – and thus also for a chaotic Brexit without a withdrawal agreement.
"Preparations must be accelerated immediately at all levels and take into account all possible outcomes," he says in bold in the corresponding 18-page document. Although you continue to do everything in time to get an agreement on an orderly Brexit. However, the question of whether this succeeds is not certain, stresses the Commission.
Negotiations between London and Brussels have been stalled for months. It is true that British Prime Minister Theresa May presented her White Paper last week, in which she first formulated her vision of relations with the EU after Brexit. But the central details of the withdrawal itself remain unresolved, including the question of how to prevent a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
No statement on May's white paper
It's good that the British The white paper would have submitted anything, according to an EU official. But there are still many questions. Brussels responded coldly to the document. Officially, you do not want to deal with the white paper. At the Brexit meeting of ministers responsible for the 27 other EU Member States, which will start in Brussels on Friday, there should be no official declaration. The white paper discusses relationships after Brexit. "But we are currently negotiating the withdrawal agreement," says a diplomat
. In the United Kingdom, Brexit extremists have severely attacked the White Paper. Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson said the whole plan was in the trash. Other Brexit members have argued that there should be a customs agreement with the EU only if Brussels is willing to impose different tariffs at the EU's external borders for them. deliveries to the UK and the rest of the EU. This, fear critics, increases the danger of Brexits chaos without agreement.
All this causes rest in Brussels. "The situation in London is explosive," says an EU official. If one wanted to predict what would happen soon, one could also "open an animal and read one's bowels."
At the same time, the clock is turning. There are only eight months left before the Brexit deadline of 31 March 2019. The agreement, which will regulate the details of the withdrawal, must be ready in October so that the parliaments of London, Brussels and the other Member States have more time, review and approve the contract.
"We do not have to expel all the British on April 1"
Therefore, the European Commission urges rapid preparations for a scenario without a transaction. If negotiations fail, there is no planned transition phase, in which the UK can remain a quasi-EU non-voting member for two years after Brexit. Instead, the country would plummet without EU control on 1 April 2019.
Some of these episodes are listed in their document by the European Commission:
- There is no legal certainty for citizens of the EU and Britain regarding their residence status or the need for a visa. 19659014] At the borders, the EU should introduce customs controls and other controls. Experts warn that this would cause a mess, especially in Channel ports. The damage to the economy, which relies on seamless supply chains, would be enormous
- between Britain and the EU would fall back on the rules of the World Organization Trade. In addition, the British would lose overnight access to the EU's trade agreements with other states
- .
- Traffic especially the airlines, would be particularly affected because Britain would also abandon air agreements with the rest of the EU and North America. In extreme cases, British air traffic would be largely stopped.
In Brussels, we practice optimism. According to an EU diplomat, it is still possible to meet the deadline of October. The withdrawal contract has been negotiated at 80%, the remaining 20% can be quite long. Although stuck in this part of the most delicate issues. However, the pressure of time can also help to find answers. Because they should arrive sooner or later anyway.
If they fail to materialize, the British could end up as immigrants who were a major target of the sometimes pro-Brexit, sometimes hateful campaign. Another EU diplomat said: "That trains can cross the Channel Tunnel and land even after Brexit – and that we do not have to expel all British citizens because April 1st they will have a foreigner without a residence permit
Abstract: The European Commission urged the authorities of the EU states and the economy to prepare for all Brexit scenarios – including an exit from the UK without agreement. The reason: the British government is still deeply divided, the result of negotiations with the EU is open.
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