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Say it right away: Against the countercyclical investment, there is nothing to object. On the contrary, it often seems reasonable to buy when others are selling – and vice versa. Many experts see this approach as a good way to maximize returns.
What many gold buyers do, however, seems remarkable. The price of gold falls and falls – but the optimism of the precious metal friends seems to increase only with every dollar, by which the troy ounce becomes cheaper. And what is really irritating is that unlike other cases of countercyclical investments – such as stock market or real estate – gold currently seems largely devoid of arguments. fundamentals that would justify a purchase.
Many experts believe that a further decline in the price of gold is possible, as recently made Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank. They cite market influences that speak of lower prices, as the reasons that Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, called this week Bloomberg TV:
– The stronger in a context of rising US rates The increase in the US dollar, which makes gold more expensive for buyers in the non-dollar area.
– Increasing opportunity costs for gold holdings also in the context of rising US interest rates.
– Comparatively moderate inflation, which makes coverage in this sense barely necessary.
– Lack of appetite for gold among major investors.
ETF market data, which Bloomberg also reported this week, underscore Tchilinguirian's latest point. According to this document, investors withdrew funds from gold index funds for eight consecutive weeks. This is the longest time since the beginning of 2014, according to the news service.
In addition, experts point to the longer-term global picture, which also does not speak for a rising gold price in the near future 
. Since its record in 2011, the price is down. Although this long-term downward trend was initially halted in 2016, according to badyst Martin Utschneider of private bank Donner & Reuschel. But only to move to a bumpy side course.
Since the beginning of April this year, according to the author, however, there is still a short – term downward trend in the price of gold. Decisive is now the $ 1200 mark per troy ounce, or from a technical point of view, the mark of 1191 dollars. Slip the price below this value, the expert, so he could go even lower. The gold could then return to the overall downtrend begun in 2011.
For your tip: This week, the price of gold has dropped again. On Thursday, the Troy ounce rose to less than $ 1,220, the lowest level of a year.
Utschneider's conclusion is clear: "Gold lost its nimbus as a safe haven in 2011. The precious metal is definitely not a buy. It has become a purely speculative investment. "
A grounded opinion with which many investment professionals can agree.Many gold fans, on the other hand, seem to see things differently. continue to buy gold coins and bullion – in the face of falling prices, with seemingly increasing enthusiasm.
This is clear from the statements that magazine magazin received online these days at the request of various commercial companies. "The price of gold marks a new low year and buyers are back," wrote Daniel Marburger of CoinInvest in an email. "Unlike the low beginning of the month, there is now a real gold rush atmosphere. "With a sales increase of 50 percent over the previous week, the trend was clear, so Marburger.The low entry price attracts buyers who have "patiently waited for a reset of the pri x gold.
The price of gold hardly benefits from political uncertainties
He looks like Pro Aurum in Munich. "The poor gold demand we've seen in the first five months of the year has increased dramatically," said Benjamin Summa. "Nine out of ten customers are new buyers and our sales are currently on average 25% higher than in the first quarter of the year."
Degussa Goldhandel GmbH of Frankfurt had already informed at the end of June that the drop in demand for gold Get up. Sales, according to Degussa at the time, were 35% higher than in May and 55% higher than in April.
This has not changed until today – on the contrary: in July, according to director Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, activity with coins and bullion has again registered a more than 30%. The reason is clearly in the price falls, so Wrzesniok-Roßbach. Customers are very price sensitive.
So, why do people buy so much gold, even if there is little evidence that the price will recover sustainably in the near future? The various geopolitical tensions are often presented as arguments, especially the commercial conflict between the United States and the rest of the world. Many gold buyers seem to find the precious metal as a haven for difficult times in the financial markets.
However, this argument has been heard in recent years – often the hope has turned out to be misleading. The price of gold, the recent experience, does not benefit much, if somewhere in world politics the uncertainties are summarized.
Therefore, there is probably a reason why humans now buy gold coins and ingots: They like the precious metal simply, and they believe in . It's probably as simple as that: Psychology still plays an important role in investing. And this applies to just about any other investment as well as to gold.
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