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At least in the survey results, the difference between the SPD and the Greens is not too great. In the current "German trend" of the ARD, the Social Democrats reach 18%, the former partner of the coalition is 15% behind. With Civey, it looks like that, there is the SPD currently at 17, the Greens at 13%. (Vote at the end of the text.)
SPD leader Andrea Nahles now asks his party to differentiate itself more from the content of the Greens. "The imitation of the Greens does not help us anymore," she told "Münchner Merkur".
Nahles refers first and foremost to the politics of asylum. There, the Greens would take a simple position, she said. "Our journey is more differentiated, but realistic." The party leader pleaded for "resentless realism" and criticized the Greens' refusal to send countries of origin that were safer than "a serious mistake".
The Great Coalition wants to include Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Georgia among these states. For example, asylum procedures could be expedited by nationals of these countries and easier to expel. However, a similar plan had already failed in the previous Bundesrat legislature. Even now, most Greens do not want to participate. However, to bring the project across the Landkammer, at least two state governments with green participation should be in agreement.
Tone intensifies
Nahles had already set the tone in the debate. In May, she pointed to unsuccessful asylum seekers: "We can not all accommodate each other". At the time, she received heavy criticism for these statements, including from her own ranks. The Berlin regional badociation accused it of "straight rhetoric."
Recently, however, both SPD wing clearly behind the SPD chairman. "Andrea Nahles shows a crazy effort," said the boss of Juso Kevin Kühnert the newspapers of the "New Berlin publishing company". "She takes a lot of time for personal interviews, calls early in the morning or late in the evening." When the party was renewed, the members also had to participate, some of them went to the ease and waited for renewal from above. "Since Nahles has a motivational task," Kühnert said.
Also Johannes Kahrs, one of the speakers of the conservative circle Seeheimer, congratulated the president: "She is holding the store together, he is leading." "I'm not a member of Nahles fan club, but honestly, it feels good," said Kahrs, the newspaper network.
Nahles again stressed: "The SPD only flies with two wings." She did not want to go through it. Looking at Kühnert, with whom she sometimes has a tense relationship, she said that he had strengthened the Jusos. "It's not always nice for the party leader, but the Jusos are the lifeline of the party." Nahles was once the boss of the youth development organization.
Next Tuesday, the 48-year-old man will be in power for a hundred days. Since then, the SPD has indeed stabilized in the polls – but at a lower level than in the Bundestag elections. In September 2017, the Social Democrats had dropped to 20.5% – their worst post-war results so far.
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How does the Civey method work?
Network on more than 20 000 websites played ("Riversampling"), so that it is not only the users of SPIEGEL ONLINE questioned. Anyone can take part in online surveys and will be considered with his answers in the representative result he's registered. From these users, Civey draws a quoted sample that ensures that it fits the population, for example, in terms of age, gender and population density. Finally, in a third step, the results are weighted according to other sociodemographic factors and participant values in order to correct the distortions and avoid manipulations. More information can be found in the Civey FAQ.
Why is it necessary to register?
The recording helps to weight the answers, thus allowing a representative survey result of the electoral population in Germany. Each participant is asked to indicate their gender, year of birth and place of residence. After that, everyone can express their opinion in different surveys on different subjects
How do the results become representative?
Will you reach enough participants online?
Opinion polls are usually conducted by phone or online. The importance of results depends on the number of people who can be contacted and the number of people actually participating in an investigation when contacted. Internet connections and land-line connections are now about as widespread in Germany – with around 90% of households and 95% of mobile phones. Willingness to participate in all methods in the one-digit percentage range, experts consider it particularly low for telephone surveys.
So there is a group of people in both methods that can not be reached. do not want to participate in the investigation. This is why a lot of people have to be approached for a meaningful result. Civey's surveys are currently being added to SPIEGEL ONLINE in more than 20,000 other sites involved, including different media. This makes it possible to reach the largest possible number of populations
How can I know the quality of a result?
Until the results of an inquiry become representative, enough different people will have to participate. Civey badures that this has already been achieved by specifying a statistical probability of error for each survey result. The number of participants and the time of the interview are also published for each survey
What does it mean when the colored areas in the graphs overlap?
In our graphs, the statistical error is represented by a colored interval. This interval shows the uncertainty badociated with a survey score. For example, on the Sunday issue, you can not tell exactly how much percent a party would get in a poll, but specify an interval where the result is likely to be. If the intervals of two survey values overlap, then, strictly speaking, no statement about the difference can be made. For the Sunday question, this means: If the numbers of two-part polls are so close that their error intervals overlap, it is not possible to deduce which of them would be the more efficient.
Users' personal data are stored encrypted on German servers and remain secret. They are only used to weight the answers and to ensure that the surveys are not manipulated. To avoid this, Civey uses both statistical and technical methods.
Who is behind Civey's investigations?
At this point, readers of the application and mobile / stationary site have the opportunity to participate in a representative Civey survey. Civey is an online polling institute based in Berlin. To collect its representative surveys, the company's software, founded in 2015, links the websites to a national network of surveys. In addition to SPIEGEL ONLINE include, among others, the "Tagesspiegel", "World", "Wirtschaftswoche" and "Rheinische Post". Civey was funded by the ProFit financing program of Berlin Investitionsbank and the European Regional Development Fund.
