The DAX again wins in ruin – the optimism of professional investors does not bode anything

Recent statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fueled speculation on interest rates. He said Wednesday that the current range of key rates of 2.0 to 2.25% is "just below" the estimated neutral level, which will neither promote nor slow the world's largest economy. He also said, "We know that the economic impact of our interest rate hikes is uncertain." It could take up to a year or more for the effects to become visible. Several investors have learned from these phrases that there may be a break in interest next year.

But there are also criticisms of Powell's statements. According to Commerzbank, the market has cleverly hidden what Powell had said otherwise. Notably, current interest rates, between two and 2.55%, are still low by historical standards and the Fed expects strong and sustained growth, low unemployment and at an inflation rate close to 2%. As much as, according to Powell, the consequences of current decisions are often only visible in a year. "This means that the Fed is sticking to its gradual interest rate cycle, which will expire only in the autumn of 2019," say badysts at Commerzbank.

Even from the point of view of the stock market, there is nothing to indicate that it will come after Powell's statements at a sudden resumption at the end of the year. For despite risks such as the trade dispute between the United States and China and the Italian budget deficit, professional investors have established an unprecedented optimism in the day. From a sentimental point of view, such euphoria is a counter-indicator because many investors have already bought and that it is lacking other buyers if prices fall. This optimism is evident in the put-call ratio of the Frankfurt Eurex futures exchange. This shows a clear overhang in the long positions.

As a result, Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates a survey of stock market sentiment for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, has a clear opinion. Any new price increase of around 11,600 points should, in his opinion, lead to profit taking and therefore inevitably a drag on the Dax. "However, the much greater danger arises if the stock market barometer was to undermine previous annual lows," explains the behavioral economist. Because the remaining domestic demand should be pretty thin in this case. "And we can not expect today's optimists to be listening to this evolution, but it's probably going to be an emergency brake," says Goldberg.

But today, things are starting to go up: technology sector actions have been sought on a wide front and throughout Europe. So put Wirecard and Infineon in index 3 and 2.5% and Siltronic in MDax with 3.5%. In SDax, RIB Software and Aixtron were among the biggest winners.

Investors can look forward to the record dividends that Dax companies want to make this year. Although many of them will earn less this year than in 2017, Dax companies are expected to transfer about 38 billion euros – and thus a billion euros more than the previous one – to their shareholders.

Look at the individual values

Deutsche Bank: An ongoing search by the Frankfurt Attorney General and the Federal Criminal Office has increased the price of the action. About 170 prosecutors, the Federal Criminal Police, the Tax Investigation Service and the Federal Police have raided six properties in Frankfurt, Eschborn and Groß-Umstadt since the morning. The paper lost significantly after a positive start and a rise to 8.70 euros, which could limit losses in the end to 3.4%. With 8.17 euros today, the paper was no more far from the previous record of 8.05 euros. Since the beginning of the year, equities have a loss of just under 48% currently. Thus, papers are currently the worst value of Dax.

Tele Columbus: The cable operator is one of the favorites of the German stock market after announcing a sharp increase in its net profit. Newspapers gained 13.2%. The return to growth is good news, says badyst Wolfgang Specht of Bankhaus Lampe. The reaffirmed goals for the year are realistic.

Vapiano Wednesday, the chain of restaurants had lost 10.2%, but Thursday, it still gained 5.2%. The weak activity in Europe slowed Vapiano during the first nine months. The house of badysis Kepler Cheuvreux had left Vapiano despite the second profit warning of this year on "Hold" with a target price of 16 euros.

What does the cartography say

Technical badysts are now hoping for a dip. To overcome this completely, the Dax should exceed 11,690 points. "A break above this level should trigger a double floor, which could lead to a surge up to 12,104 points," say UBS technical badysts. But below this level, there is always a risk of new tests and falling below the trough of the current year, of about 11,000 points.

Helaba's technical badysts see the first resistance zone as having a mark of 11,351 and 11,430 points, which could not be overcome so far. Tuesday this week and Thursday, the mark of 11,400 was too strong resistance.

"As a general rule, it can be badumed that a long upside break is not successful and that it is increasingly unlikely," write experts from the Helaba Charter. "In any case, the general trend is still downward and in the past, it was often not logical to position oneself against the main trend."