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Extreme increase in diabetes cases in Germany predicts
More and more people in this country are suffering from diabetes. According to recent projections, the number of people with type 2 diabetes in Germany is expected to reach 12 million by 2040.
More and more people are suffering from diabetes
A few years ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that the number of adult diabetics worldwide in 2025 is expected to exceed 700 million. And recently, British researchers have published a study that by 2045, one in eight people will have type 2 diabetes. In Germany too, the number of diabetic patients continues to increase. Scientists are expecting a dramatic increase in the number of disease cases in the coming years.
Projections of the future number of cases of type 2 diabetes
Based on data from about 65 million insured in Germany and the Federal Statistical Office, scientists from the German Diabetes Center (DDZ) and their colleagues from the The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published for the first time large projections on the number of 2 cases of diabetes in Germany for all ages.
According to the data on the evolution of cases from 2015 to 2040, the latest trends in emerging cases, an increase in life expectancy and a decrease in mortality rate due to advances in medicine have been included.
This allowed the experts to calculate case numbers more accurately than in previous projection studies.
"In previous predictions, only certain age groups were taken into account or the temporal evolution of the mortality rate and new cases were not taken into account," says Dr. med. Ralph Brinks, head of the study at DDZ, in a statement.
The calculations were performed as part of the National Diabetes Surveillance Organization, funded by the Federal Ministry of Health, and recently published in the journal "Diabetic Medicine".
Not only does the aging of the population influence the number of future cases
In the calculation, the simple projection of the incidence of age-specific disease in 2015 in the population's likely age structure in 2040 showed an increase in diabetes cases from 21% to 8.3 million.
According to the authors, it is not enough to consider the evolution of the age structure.
It is also necessary to take into account the evolution of the mortality rate (death rate) in people with and without type 2 diabetes and the incidence rate (incidence rate) over the period. time.
Therefore, to calculate the number of future diabetes cases, the following three variables were linked for the first time:
Prevalence: The incidence of the disease indicates the percentage of people with diabetes in Germany at any one time.
Incidence rate: The incidence rate indicates the number of new cases of diabetes in Germany over a given period. for example in a year.
Mortality rate: mortality of people with and without diabetes.
Excess mortality related to diabetes: relationship between mortality rates in men and in people without diabetes.
Better treatment options
At present, mortality rates of people with diabetes in Germany are still about twice as high as those of people without diabetes.
Due to advances in medicine and the improvement of diabetes treatment options and its sequelae, scientists suspect that in the future, fewer diabetics will die prematurely compared to what they do. They were before.
Such trends have also been observed in other countries.
The future development of new disease rates is also critical for the development of important risk factors related to diabetes, such as lack of exercise, malnutrition and obesity in the population.
Especially the number of elderly patients will increase
DDZ researchers have calculated a relative increase in the number of type 2 diabetes cases from 54% (+3.8 million cases) to 77, including these three variables and increasing life expectancy with different badumptions for development of new rates of illness and excess mortality related to diabetes Percentage (+5.4 million cases) from 2015 to 2040.
This means that by 2040, an estimated 10.7 to 12.3 million people will develop type 2 diabetes. The number of older people with type 2 diabetes is particularly high.
"According to these calculations by the DDZ and RKI expert teams, practices and clinics need to adapt even more than previously to the treatment of older people with type 2 diabetes," said the professor. Michael Roden, director of DDZ and director of the Endocrinology and Diabetology Clinic at the University Hospital of Düsseldorf.
This forecast requires more training of experts and the creation of specialized centers.
According to scientists from DDZ and RKI, the number of future cases depends on the number of people likely to develop diabetes over the next two decades.
This size can be positively influenced by prevention and training measures. (Ad)
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