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In 2017, the number of electric cars sold in the world has surpbaded the threshold of one million. This year is expected to 1.6 million. According to a study by US badyst Bloomberg New Energy Finance, rapid growth is expected to reach 30 million in 2030. The rapid growth has a reason: electric vehicles become cheaper, especially as lithium batteries -ion become cheaper and cheaper. In 2010, an average battery cost about $ 1,000 per kilowatt hour. By the end of 2017, only $ 209 was lost – a price drop of nearly 80%. "The goal of the automotive industry is to reduce battery costs to less than 100 euros over the next six or seven years," said Wolfgang Klebsch, of the German VDE Association. It would be $ 116.
The incentive to this is there: with the rapid spread of electric cars, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is also growing. Currently, batteries are produced with a total output of 131,000 megawatts. By 2021, it is expected to reach 400,000 megawatts, then 1.5 million megawatts by 2030.
The main driver of this boom is China. Half of all electronic cars are sold in the Middle Kingdom. In China itself, the boom is concentrated in six cities, all of which have strict regulations for the purchase and use of combustion vehicles. As for batteries, the numbers are even clearer: nearly three quarters of lithium-ion batteries are manufactured in China
Meanwhile, European manufacturers have joined forces: VW, Daimler, Volvo and Renault Nissan have ambitious fleet change projects announced. Bloomberg predicts that in 2029 electric vehicles will be competitive with petrol and diesel vehicles. As a result, by 2040, 55% of all car sales and one third of the global car fleet are expected to be electrically powered. It also means: It takes a lot of batteries.
Their costs go down because production becomes more efficient – especially in China. Another reason is the improvement of the energy density. According to the report, it has increased by five to seven percent annually in recent years. Theoretically, the energy density can be significantly increased. For example, changing the mixing ratio of materials. Currently, only the first and second generation batteries are on the market: lithium-ion batteries badociated with iron phosphate, manganese oxide or nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide. And NCM batteries that use nickel, manganese and cobalt in equal proportions. The developers are working to reduce the cobalt content. Because the raw material is often exploited in scandalous conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, it is difficult to obtain and expensive.
The goal is to increase nickel content eight times, which increases energy density and costs. However, this has side effects: the batteries start to burn more easily. Therefore, one could convert in the future, for example, from a liquid electrolyte to a solid. "It's an equation with a lot of unknowns," says VDE man Klebsch.
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