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Benjamin Netanyahu, who appeared to have secured a fifth term as Israeli prime minister in April but failed to form a government, will enter the elections on Sept. 17 in a weaker stance, badysts said.
For the first time in the history of Israel, he will hold two national votes in a single year.
The failure of Netanyahu is due to the impossibility of reaching a compromise between Avigdor Lieberman's secular right-wing party, Yisrael Beiteinu, and ultra-Orthodox parties within his future coalition.
The main obstacle was a dispute over a bill on conscription, the same problem that had apparently caused the dissolution of the government last December.
The quarrel over service in the army persists for years between secular and religious parties. Many ultra-Orthodox seminary students avoid serving in the army, which is mandatory because they are allowed to defer their service several times.
Lieberman switch
Elie Jacobs, of the Truman National Security Project, said that there may be a chance that Netanyahu will not continue to lead his right wing party, the Likud.
"There are so many outstanding issues at the moment, starting with whether Netanyahu will remain the Likud leader in the coming weeks," Jacobs told Al Jazeera. "He could very easily be overthrown by his own party."
Even if the Prime Minister would run in September, Lieberman, his ally turned enemy, could be a challenge, with a possible split between Likud, Netanyahu's right-wing party, and Yisrael Beiteinu, Israeli journalist Meron Rapoport said. in Al Jazeera.
"Even though Lieberman has five seats in the Knesset, he represents a large community of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, about a million," said Rapoport.
Al Jazeera's Harry Fawcett said Lieberman had turned against Netanyahu after Netanyahu could not approve a bill that would protect Israel from becoming, in Lieberman's eyes, a religious state. .
"Lieberman came out this morning without mentioning Netanyahu, accusing the Likud of turning to ultra-orthodoxy for the situation he is in," said Fawcett, speaking from West Jerusalem.
"We are really back in the same situation we were seven weeks ago."
Indictments pending
Rapoport said that Netanyahu "certainly does not go into this election stronger but weaker. "
"It's an open race," he said, "despite the damage to his image."
The Attorney General has announced his intention to indict Netanyahu for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
He is facing imminent indictments in three separate cases, with a hearing against the Attorney General's plan to be held in October.
"The chances for Netanyahu to get immunity to be sued are weakened, and its chances of escaping the indictment are slim," he said. said Rapoport.
"In this case, I think voters who go to the polls in September will be aware of voting for someone who probably will not be prime minister for long," he added.
"The most formidable politician"
No party has ever won a majority of 61 out of 120 seats in the Israeli Knesset, or parliament, making the coalition a government.
According to Jacobs, the September elections could result in the redefinition of alliances and the entry of new parties into the race.
"The calculation will be very strange in the coming weeks and months, as different factions and parties begin to form and team up with each other," he said.
"Two other former senior military will be eligible to run this fall as rumors speak of the launch of their own political party, which would be opposed to that of Netanyahu."
But the new parties must overcome the 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset, which several new far-right parties have failed to do in the April vote.
"At the micro-political level, I think Netanyahu could survive," Rapoport said.
"The 300,000 voters who voted for most of the right-wing parties that did not cross the Knesset election are likely to vote for the right-wing camp in the September elections, an element that will play in Netanyahu's favor. . "
Jacobs described Netanyahu as "the most fearsome politician in Israel".
"Unless a Likud patricide, he will remain the most likely to leave the post of prime minister in September," he said.
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