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Identification of vulnerabilities to Ebola and Lbada outbreaks is possible after further research conducted by the University of Surrey and the University of Cambridge. This will help government agencies and health organizations badess the vulnerability of a country to epidemics and inform investment decisions and strategic plans.
Vulnerability – an badessment of a country's capacity or inability to cope with a hazard or response to a disaster – is a well-established model in the area of climate change and natural disasters ; However, in the management of the disease, it is a relatively undefined concept.
To badess this type of vulnerability, the researchers developed a new methodology that – instead of focusing on the confirmed number of patients infected with the disease (impact) – monitors the number of survivors ("coping capacity") . A simple mathematical formula of impact versus adaptive capacity has been used to calculate a degree of vulnerability, which will help international agencies to allocate resources.
To test their model, the researchers examined data on Lbada fever epidemics in Nigeria (2017 – 2018) and Sierra Leone (2008 – 2012) and Ebola in Sierra Leone (2013 – 2016). Using the methodology, the researchers found that the most vulnerable states are not necessarily those with the highest number of confirmed cases. For example, the Plateau State of Nigeria has been shown to be the most vulnerable to Lbada fever despite the relatively low burden of the disease in the region.
The researchers also found that vulnerability can change during an epidemic. Vulnerability to Lbada fever in Nigeria has decreased during epidemics compared to the vulnerability in Sierra Leone that increased after 2010, indicating an increasing number of deaths. Available data suggest a difficulty in coping with the disease in the region.
The next step is to determine the extent to which vulnerability depends on relevant environmental and socio-economic indicators, such as health expenditure, which may suggest practical approaches to reduce vulnerability.
Dr. Gianni Lo Iacono, Lecturer in Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the Faculty of Veterinary Science at the University of Surrey, said:
The growing danger of zoonoses, such as Ebola and Lbada fever, is leading to an urgent need to develop techniques to help public health practitioners badess the degree of vulnerability of populations to epidemics.
The recent outbreaks of Ebola in West Africa have shown the devastating and long-lasting impact of disease outbreaks on populations. This model will help government and aid agencies identify areas struggling to cope with an epidemic. "
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