The ECB and Draghi may find it difficult to disappoint markets later today

Eurozone long-term inflation expectations continue to drop to almost record lows ahead of ECB meeting

ForexLive

This basically tells you that the markets do not expect a lot of positive results from the ECB. Even a continuous dovish tone of Draghi will not do much to reality, as noted above.

The markets are already starting to anticipate a 10 basis point rate cut by the ECB by next July and it is hard to see how Draghi can add anything because the central bank will reaffirm its position, "he said. that is to say its forecasts in the future, as we had seen in April. .

That being said, Mr Draghi still has reason to be calmer with the global trade tensions flaring up and core inflation in the eurozone falling below the 1.0% threshold a / a in May, after the April report was reinforced by Easter seasonality.

I think these two factors could play a role in the fact that Draghi adds dovish tones this time around, but it's hard to see them disappointing in the markets when traders / investors have already turned the corner and expect to what the central bank does as well.

The euro, however, showed some resistance despite the decline in sentiment towards the ECB. It may be possible to back off again. But it is difficult for this to materialize when the central bank is going to stick to the same message – more or less – that we saw in April, even though the economic projections are slightly weaker.

Given this sentiment, it's hard to see the ECB and Draghi disappointing the markets as the markets are already rather disappointed at the beginning in recent months / weeks. However, if they are reporting increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook, expect the markets to rise and punish the euro.