A trade war deal would end the oil slump, says RBC's Helima Croft,



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Helima Croft, of RBC Capital Markets, attributes the trade war between the United States and China to the fall of oil in the bear market.

According to the firm's Global Head of Commodity Research, the bullish sentiment on crude has been undermined by global growth concerns over tensions between Washington and Beijing.

"What is driving the demand for oil is China, there is a real fear of a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in China," she said Thursday at the channel "Futures Now" from CNBC. "One of the things that has kept this market tight this year has been the very high Chinese oil imports."

Without a sign that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are getting closer to a resolution, she says the commodity will continue to struggle.

Croft, a CNBC contributor, says Trump's May 5 tweet that a trade deal was not yet concluded ended the oil rally.

"The oil went higher, you know, the first part of May, then you resumed the trade war," she added.

Last month, WTI oil fell by 15%. The Brent international benchmark is also struggling, down 13% over this period.

Croft points out that another problem reinforces the pessimism surrounding oil: the constitution of an important inventory in the United States.

"This is a counter-seasonal construction, which raises concerns that US production will be higher than expected," she said. "It's a second blow to the oil market right now."

However, Croft predicts that the downtrend could become news on the good news of a trade deal.

"If we get some kind of outgoing G20 signal that the trade war is raging, and if we start getting the inventories we're looking for because of the summer driving season, that's what could push us higher." Back in that kind of $ 60 for the WTI, "said Croft.

Thursday, WTI rose by 1.8% to 52.51 dollars per barrel and Brent 1.7% to 61.68 dollars per barrel.

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