Trump says US and Mexico have trade and migration deal, with Mexican tariff threat "hanging indefinitely"

Back in Washington after a week-long visit to Europe, Trump wrote in a tweet on board Air Force One, there was a "good chance" to enter into an agreement including the purchase by Mexico of more agricultural products in the United States – a sign that its tariff threats could depend on more than just immigration.

But the president also warned that "if we are unable to conclude this agreement, Mexico will start paying tariffs at the 5% level on Monday!" Trump said the rates would increase each month up to 25% if Mexico did not take many measures to reduce the record number of unauthorized pbadages by Central American families.

President Trump prepares to board Air Force One in Ireland. On his way to Washington, he tweeted the outlook for tariffs on Mexican goods. (Mandel Ngan / AFP / Getty Images)

"We're fine," Trump told reporters on Friday. in response to shouted questions on the South Lawn after returning to the White House on Marine One.

The White House aides – divided over a strategy that could hurt both the Mexican and American economies – were preparing for Trump to respond to his threats as he strives to reach an agreement that satisfies him.

"There is still a long way to go – that's the end result," Marc Short, Pence's deputy chief of staff at the White House, told reporters. He added that the administration planned to issue a "legal notification" Friday in advance of potential tariffs.

"But I think it's possible, if negotiations are going well, that the president can turn it off at any point in the weekend," Short said. He said the talks in Washington had been "totally inadequate" on Wednesday, but the White House was "more encouraged" starting Thursday.

Talks continued throughout the day Friday at the state department, and White House officials are expected to present Trump more details on his return, officials said.

[Mexico aims to avoid tariffs with potential deal limiting migrants going north, allowing U.S. to deport Central American asylum seekers]

Trump's threats to increase levies on Mexican products have caused some presidential advisers and corporate executives to fear that brinkmanship may be turning against a slowdown in US economic growth. The economy created 75,000 jobs in May, down significantly from 224,000 in April, with economists blaming the decline on Trump's higher tariffs on China and threats against Mexico.

The Trump administration has already signed a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada that is awaiting congressional ratification, but the odds that this deal will become law could be jeopardized in the context of a trade war against the United States. 39; immigration.

The US Chamber of Commerce on Friday issued a statement by 140 business and farm organizations warning that tariffs "would hurt consumers, workers, farmers, and US businesses of all sizes and in all sectors."

But Trump has indicated his confidence in the health of the US economy.

"Dow Jones has the best week of the year!" he tweeted Friday night, we learned that the market had jumped more than 260 points despite the report on stagnant jobs.

In Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who attempted to calm tensions with the Trump White House, on Saturday organized a rally for "unity" in the border town of Tijuana in order to "defend the dignity" of his country while emphasizing his "friendship" with the United States.

Yet Mexico has promised to adopt retaliatory tariffs on goods from the United States if necessary.

[GOP lawmakers warn White House they’ll try to block Trump’s Mexico tariffs]

Faced with Trump's threat to impose ever-increasing tariffs on goods imported from Mexico as of Monday, Mexican authorities pledged to deploy up to 6,000 soldiers from the National Guard near the border with Guatemala, a show of force that will immediately reduce the number of central soldiers. Americans heading north to the United States.

The proposed agreement – which corresponds to an in-depth review of asylum rules in the region – would force migrants from Central America to seek refuge in the first country they enter after leaving their country, said Mexican and American officials. For Guatemalans, it would be Mexico. For migrants from Honduras and El Salvador, it would be Guatemala, whose government met last week with the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kevin McAleenan.

All migrants traveling to the US border would generally be deported to the appropriate third country. And all migrants who feared death or torture in their country of origin would be subject to a stricter screening standard on the part of US asylum officers, who were more likely to be rejected.

On Friday, Mexican finance officials said they had frozen the bank accounts of 26 people because of their alleged involvement in human trafficking, another sign of intensifying law enforcement efforts.

Still, Trump and his top advisers have given confusing signals about exactly what Mexico needs to do to avoid punitive measures.

US authorities apprehended nearly 133,000 migrants on the southern border in May, the highest number in a dozen years. This number is greater than one million arrests for the 2019 fiscal year, and there are four months left.

In his first threats, Trump said the Mexican authorities were to prevent all unauthorized immigrants from entering the United States, but the White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, said that the administration sought to reduce immigration "of a substantial and substantial number".

In private, Mexican negotiators told the Trump administration that the measures they proposed could reduce unauthorized pbadages to last fall levels, when an average of about 60,000 migrants were apprehended each month. White House officials, however, have asked for guarantees of reducing their numbers to about 20,000 a month, a historic record reached in the first few months of Trump's term.

Experts warned that even if the US and Mexico reached an agreement to strengthen law enforcement, progress could be temporary unless there is a sustained commitment to resolving the fundamental problems that drive the law. families from Central America to flee their country, including crime, climate change and hunger.

Former US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, who had to cope with the rise of the border in 2014, said that the United States had experienced a significant reduction in migration after the The Mexican government agreed to reinforce the crackdown along the border with Guatemala. The following year, the number of illegal crossings in the United States fell to its lowest level in 50 years.

But the changes were short-lived and the arrests at the border increased again in 2016.

"From my experience, you can do more aggressive things at the border that will have a net but short impact on the numbers," said Johnson, who served in the Obama administration. "But if the underlying conditions persist in Central America, things will always return to trend lines in the longer run, and that's why continued aid to Central America is so important to solving problems larger. "

Nick Miroff contributed to this report.