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At Nieman Lab, it's a moment of annual print realism: the display of the attention / advertising slide from Mary Meeker's up-to-date slide. It's a tradition that allows me to copy and paste from multiple versions of this message. Here is a sentence from the 2013 version:
For those who do not know, Meeker – formerly of Morgan Stanley, Kleiner Perkins venture capital firm since the end of 2010 – produces each year a set of specific data reflecting what it sees as the main trends in the market. use and growth of the Internet. It may be the only set of slides that can be considered an event in itself.
And a piece of the 2014 version:
The interesting aspect of Meeker's platform is that its basic data serves as a punctuation mark for some major trends in progress. We all know the kind of trends, but the annual growth rate can be difficult to badess. For example, the continued disappearance of the print.
The Meeker slide that always interests me the most is the one where it shows how American attention is divided between the different forms of media – and how that division aligns with the goals of advertising. How much of our attention goes to television, for example, in relation to how much of our advertising goes into it?
It is not an absolute dogma that the two audiences – public attention and advertising money – will always be equal. But it makes sense that they tend towards parity. More people listening to the radio should lead to more companies that advertise on the radio, or vice versa.
The only thing to update in these paragraphs is that Meeker left Kleiner Perkins last fall, which is quite dramatic to inspire the New York Times title. Mary Meeker, Queen of the Internet, leaves Kleiner Perkins to create a new fund. She's now operating under her own shingle, Bond.
Meeker's six previous annual updates, here at the Nieman Lab, ran through the slides of previous years, one by one, showing the changes ahead, then unveiling the brand new slide showing that things were worse than ever. (See last year for an example.)
But she rocked things this year and made the slide itself an interannual comparison. I will show you!
So, to spot you: Meeker divides the media into five segments: impression (newspapers and magazines), radio, TV, office (which means Internet media on desktops and laptops), and mobile (ditto but on phones and tablets). Also: just to be a little confusing, she just called "Internet" in previous versions of this slide.
And for the terminology to be clear: when she says "TV" or "radio" or "press", she talks about the form of media distributionand not the company that produces the content. So, if you listen to NPR on your car radio, it's the "radio". If you listen to an NPR podcast on your iPhone, it becomes "mobile". Spread the morning newspaper on your breakfast table? This is "printed". Read NYTimes.com on your laptop? This is the "office".
For each type of support, there are two bars. the left one (here in red) shows the part of the media consumption of Americans that pbades through this media. the right one (in blue) indicates the share of US advertising dollars spent on this medium.
(Data on Meeker's time spent on consumption comes from eMarketer, which released them separately a few weeks ago, so you can see the differences in digital detail here.)
So let's compare 2010 to 2018, as Meeker asks us.
In 2018, the print media only took 3% of our attention and 7% advertising dollars.
During this short period, less than a decade, the use of printing has collapsed. As is often the case, advertising revenues have responded more slowly to media changes than public behavior, but they have been caught up enough so that three-quarters of ad spend is disappearing.
The scariest reality is that he must still fall. Printing always generates more than twice as many dollars of advertising as our use of this term does not say "wins". Again, no law says they have to equalize, but that's the direction in which they always seem to go.
In 2018, television resumed 34% of our attention and always equal 34% advertising dollars.
Advertisers have understood how to think about television for a long time; they have had decades of practice to understand what works. (Television for these purposes includes live television programs and DVR recordings, but do not Netflix, Hulu and other streaming services, even if you look at them on the big flat rectangle of your living room.) The cut of the cord and the appeal of the phones have led to a steady decline in the use of television by drip since 2010, and advertising dollars have followed this trend line en bloc. Americans are still watching a lot of television – three and a half hours a day on average.
In 2018, the radio took 12% of our attention and always equal 8% advertising dollars.
The radio is facing a slow, long-term decline similar to that of television, even though every hour we drive in our cars has prevented levels as well low. Its attention / advertising dollar ratio remained relatively stable during this period.
In 2018, the office internet took 18% of our attention and 18% advertising dollars.
By 2006, if you had told an ad guy that in the next decade, the share of ads for web browsers on computers of Internet users would actually be reduced. shrinkhe probably would have laughed so hard that he'd have to pause Daughtry's playlist on his iPod. But by 2010, some users have found that the iPhone has enough potential to realize that these dollars did not become less digital: they went into people's pockets.
Advertisers took a while to convert dollars into digital, but they achieved some balance a few years ago. Desktop computers are now a source of media consumption unchanged to nowhere else, which is still active during weekday working hours, but totally abandoned for mobile phones at night and on weekends.
In 2018, the mobile took 33% of our attention and an equal 33% advertising dollars.
At the beginning of this decade, mobile telephony was becoming increasingly popular but difficult to monetize. The dominant advertising model on the desktop was an iteration of the banner: post content, place an ad in a rectangle close to the content and make a profit! The very small screens of smartphones did not seem to leave much room for this type of contiguity and mobile advertising collapsed. Sixteen times more attention than advertising dollars!
But of course that has changed since our phones have become the center around which the rest of our lives revolve. The "opportunity gap" that has existed for ten years in mobile advertising potential has been officially filled. Mobile will be watching TV on this slide next year, I'll bet, and I'll be the # 1 undisputed for at least a few years.
Let me finish by copying what I wrote six years ago and most of them are doing well; The big trends have not changed much, they have been amplified.
Print advertising does not come back. He will fall further. Substantially further. Any diary planning for the coming years must take into account this fundamental fact.
Mobile continues its rise in power,
and there is still plenty of room for advertising revenue growth. And now, it's even gnawing on the TV show from Great American Time Suck. The mobile is devouring the world and most news agencies do not pay much for it.
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