The pathological unreliability of Boris Johnson may well become his only grace.

Not so long ago, conventional political wisdom was that while the conservative base found Boris Johnson irresistible, those who knew him best (politically) found his "magnetic personality" barely bearable.

In other words, Conservative MPs would likely ensure that Mr. Johnson never goes to the last two of the party leadership race, where he would be able to carry out his catnip routine on activists . Therefore, he could never become a leader or prime minister.

However, it is before many failures of Brexit make them mad with frustration. Refusing to believe that the Brexit might collapse under the weight of its contradictions and refusing to accept that Britain ultimately can not have its cake and eat it, they dropped the bad luck of Theresa May and opened the direction. Again.

The door was open for a post of Prime Minister Johnson. That is his advance among the deputies – those who were supposed to curb his blonde ambitions – that he will certainly do the latter two. Its popularity among conservative members is such that it would be unlucky not to wear them. He could win big, which would suit his ego. Prime Minister Johnson seems almost unstoppable. It will probably be a disaster.

Given the security probabilities weighing on Mr. Johnson, many backbenchers and Conservative ministers simply support him in the hope of getting a benefit if, or when, Mr. Johnson begins to form his government. Some, like Gavin Williamson and Sir Michael Fallon, will seek to return to cabinet; others will look for a form of promotion or simply to be able to maintain their current position.

There are some lucrative jobs to be won, and "supporting Boris" will put them in a good position to lobby. On the other hand, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid will be well aware that their disappointing performances will do the opposite – will weaken any claim they might have to high office. If Boris's train really begins to roll, they will find themselves marginalized.

There were other surprises in the first round. Andrea Leadsom, which was perhaps one of the disastrous sentences of the matriarchal baton of No. 10 last time, had a spectacularly miserable show. Esther McVey also found little publicity for her scathing approach to Brexit and for her unbelievable claim to be the champion of the working clbad. Dominic Raab, who made a name for himself as a man ready to knock the queen over for Brexit by forcing him to prorogue Parliament, also had a disappointing first round.

Taken together, the most difficult Brexiteers – Ms. McVey, Mr. Raab and Ms. Leadsom – received less than 50 votes. This proves once again that the lack of agreement within the Parliamentary Conservative Party is a smaller minority than it sometimes appears. However, the majority of its members is even larger than ever. That's where the danger lies.

For those who hope to bring the Conservative Party to reason over Brexit and many other things, Rory Stewart is at least still in the game. Cabinet minister for only a few weeks and still little known, he has done well in the circumstances and could still progress. He behaves well when jostling – serious and honest, or at least, apparently.

A leadership election between Boris Johnson and Rory Stewart would offer a wider and more authentic choice than a choice among other permutations of non-dealers.

All remaining candidates, with the exception of MM. Stewart and Hanbad, explicitly stated that, forced to choose between not agree and no Brexit, they would choose not to agree.

The peculiarities of the election of conservative leaders have been highlighted. During the parliamentary rounds, it is a question of trying to appear eurosceptic, but tempered by the need to appeal to the more moderate body of opinion on the Brexit in the Commons.

However, once this is over and the battle is on the membership, it becomes a simple auction to determine who may be the most militant leader in favor of Brexit. That is why he must be relieved that these Brexit ultras, such as Mrs. McVey and Mrs. Leadsom, and probably Mr. Raab, are not included in this part of the contest.

With respect to the national interest, the only glimmer of hope in an otherwise dismal scene is the unreliability of Mr. Johnson.

Sometimes, in the autumn, Mr. Johnson will return more or less empty-handed to Brussels. Parliament will ban the possibility of not negotiating. What are the Conservatives doing then? Say that Mr. Johnson did not try hard enough? Throw him out and send for Mr. Raab or Steve Baker? Challenge the queen? Or do you finally face the reality and ask the people the question?

Mr. Johnson has always been flexible in his approach to personal and political life, his eyes being firmly focused on the main prize (Boris Johnson's expansion). It is not for nothing that he declared at the age of eight his ambition to be the king of the whole world.

It is, although it may sound fanciful now, perfectly possible that Mr. Johnson – faced between the choice of a referendum on the Final Say, that he could win, and a general election that he would be sure to lose – could well choose to participate in the referendum. and stay in Downing Street, regardless of the voters' verdict.

This will be all the more likely when Parliament regains control of its destiny and spreads the disaster of a Brexit without agreement. Members have already done so and, despite the pessimism of Sir Oliver Letwin after the failure of the last attempt, they can and must succeed in the future. Members can not allow Mr. Johnson to prorogue Parliament, which he has privately hinted to some of his supporters that he might be willing to do.

Mr. Johnson may be on the way to Downing Street – though he may at any time implode with the force of a supernova – but he is not about to badume absolute power. Far from there.

Its "mandate" will have perhaps 80,000 members of the Conservative Party and, for example, 200 members. He will chair a minority government, dependent on the DUP. He will have rebels to fight on all sides, people who will personally have less to lose than under Theresa May. He will not force Brussels to do what he does not want to do.

In any case, he is not there yet and there are many skeletons in Mr. Johnson's closet and many enemies willing to knock them over. He would not be the first favorite to fail.