Study reveals half of Ebola outbreaks are undetected

The Ebola virus, which spreads among humans through contact with bodily fluids, is one of the most virulent tropical hemorrhagic fevers and often kills a few days after the infection.

Since the discovery of Ebola in 1976, there have been at least 10 major outbreaks and dozens of smaller ones. (AFP photo)

HEALTH Ebola

The Ebola virus, which spreads among humans through contact with bodily fluids, is one of the most virulent tropical hemorrhagic fevers and often kills a few days after the infection.

Because of its scarcity and confinement in remote rural areas of central and western Africa, scientists believe that many patients are never diagnosed or are misdiagnosed as suffering from other diseases, such as malaria or typhoid.

Since the discovery of Ebola in 1976, there have been at least 10 major outbreaks and dozens of smaller ones.

Doctors examined the people who attended the Empango celebrations in Hoima. Hoima is one of the most alert districts facing the Ebola outbreak. (Photo file)

Each epidemic stems from what is called a "spread effect" – the disease pbades from animals to humans, then spreads among humans.

Researchers at the University of Cambridge have used several independent data sets from the last major epidemic occurring in West Africa in 2013-2016 to simulate thousands of outbreaks.

They calculated how many times on average an overflow event could disappear before grabbing the population, compared to the likely frequency of a true outbreak.

The results consistently showed that only one out of two outbreaks of Ebola was likely to be detected.

In addition, the probability that an individual health worker detects an isolated case of Ebola was less than 10%.

"Knowing how often overflows occur is an important step to help understand when and why this happens," said Emma Glennon, of the Cambridge Department of Veterinary Medicine, at AFP.

"We need to understand the overflow process if we want to prevent outbreaks from starting in the first place."

The last epidemic, which began in the provinces of East North Kivu and Ituri last August, recorded more than 2,000 known cases. About two-thirds were deadly.

On Thursday, the Ugandan Ministry of Health said that a woman had succumbed to the disease two days after the first death in the country attributable to the current epidemic.

Glennon said the 2018-19 and 2013-2016 epidemics may have been aggravated by more frequent human movement, conflict and lack of effective diagnosis.

"Knowing that the Ebola virus is rarely detected in the first cases underscores the importance of having resources to control and diagnose widely available infections," she said.

The research was published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

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