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In Brussels, it is reluctantly accepted that the man who ran the Brexit campaign and who openly talks about leaving without having reached an agreement is the one with whom he will now have to negotiate.
If the EU is taken on the word, the agreement that Theresa May reached with Brussels last year remains the only one on the table. Therefore, Johnson's claim that he will reopen the negotiations and make changes to the withdrawal agreement (the official name of the May agreement) is based more on the hope that on the facts.
And taken on word, if Johnson can not get these changes, then the UK will simply collapse by the end of October – the next Brexit deadline.
So why are not things so bad? For two years, EU officials have seen the United Kingdom erase the red line after red line. Talking about a great match on the Brexit of London is easy. But when it's your neck on the line, things seem a little different.
The discreet mistrust of some European types is that when the time comes, Johnson's political ambition could come to fruition as the deadline approaches. "Basically, Boris, a man who has spent his entire career preparing for this moment, wants to be the smallest prime minister in the service of history? Because that's what's will go if he misleads the UK to the cliff and there are no lawyers in the shops and no drugs in the hospitals, "said a source from the EU Knowing directly private conversations that take place between EU officials.
The launching speech of Johnson's campaign might have given clues. Although he pledged to leave the EU at the next deadline and does not request under any circumstances an additional extension, he also unequivocally declared that a Brexit without agreement was not what he wanted.
Tie these ties, and it seems suddenly plausible that Johnson will eventually attempt to sell Theresa May's withdrawal agreement to lawmakers in London in the fall.
How could this work? The Brexit agreement, as it is commonly said, has two parts. First, the withdrawal agreement, which allows the UK to leave without immediate consequences. Secondly, the Political Declaration, which describes the intentions of both parties when they enter into negotiations on future relations.
The withdrawal agreement contains a section called "backstop" for Northern Ireland, which, without going into details, aims to prevent the return of border infrastructure to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland . The conservative Brexiteers have been the main stumbling block because they have no end point and they claim that this effectively binds the UK to stay in the EU except its name.
Johnson says that he can change the safety net; The EU says it can not. But he could possibly get other commitments in the political statement that he could present as a huge victory for British lawmakers.
Why would Johnson triumph where May failed? Two reasons.
First, he is much more popular among conservatives than May. One of Brexiteers' biggest concerns was that May be responsible for the second round of negotiations, given the concessions she had made in the first round. It was his concessions, not those of Johnson. And they are more likely to trust him to hold a hard line in the second round.
Secondly, we must not exaggerate the extent to which the EU is sick of Brexit. According to European diplomatic sources, Emmanuel Macron is increasingly in favor of the other 27 EU Member States. According to him, the absence of a transaction is not as serious as the current uncertainty. They want the Brexit to be over, but they do not want to throw Ireland, the country that would be hit by a non-market other than the UK, under the bus.
This means that some concessions to help the man that they hate to get a deal on the line and get fired in this mess might not be the worst price to pay.
If that happened, the policy would be very complicated. Johnson, the darling Brexiteer, will try to force Parliament to reach an agreement allowing him to leave May's government. And if he does not succeed in having a new agreement approved, then there will be no further agreement or request for an additional extension.
The three results (agreement, extension, no agreement) could spell the end of Prime Minister Johnson just months after the 54-year-old finally realizes his dream of living at home at 10 Downing Street.
But this kind of uncontrollable and high-risk policy has defined the Brexit crisis since the Brexit vote three years ago this month. There is no reason that should change now.
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