Where could the next Big Five of technology come from?

The Big Five – Alphabet (parent company of Google), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft – have a combined market capitalization of $ 3 trillion. Their hold on the portfolios and the imagination of consumers seem unshakeable, even expanding steadily. And they have the financial burden to crush or buy any potential competitor.

While it is true that these five giants have incredible power and influence, it is also true that this type of corporate dominance does not prevent one or more new players from reaching their rarefied space or even 39, hitting one, several or even all out of their pole in the process. This will likely result not only from a product or service advancement, but also from a groundbreaking innovation that fundamentally affects society, like the current big five.

Recently, Jeff Bezos apparently told his employees that one day, Amazon could go bankrupt and be moved. Interestingly, this message was conveyed at a time when General Electric, revered, would experience what was once unimaginable. Only two decades ago, GE held the mantle of the most valuable society in the world. At present, it has lost nearly 90% of its maximum market value and, after 132 years, has become the oldest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

The biggest technology companies are not immune to such a fate. IBM, once the hegemonic king of all computer technologies, saw its dominance of the market evaporate as younger, hungry upstarts seized the computer revolution for which IBM was not ready. The company survives today thanks to a judicious reinvention only holding a tiny fraction of the power and influence that it previously possessed. Similarly, Nokia proudly owned 50% of the mobile phone market just over a decade ago. His products were almost ubiquitous at a time when owning a cell phone went from curiosity to necessity. But in recent years, its mobile division has been sold to Microsoft and eventually completely written off by CEO Satya Nadella.

The inevitable turnover

In general, the most popular companies are those that profitably respond to the mbadive consumer demand. When a new major player emerges, it will likely be taken into account by changing demand, introducing disruptive technology, or a combination of both. Apple has gained global dominance by launching the first personal PCs (and this, years later by creating an improved smartphone), Facebook by integrating the social media concept and Amazon by offering consumers a more efficient way to shop.

Companies are often displaced when their management fails to adapt quickly enough to changes in consumer behavior and competitive pressures. For example, can privacy concerns and loss of trust mean we have been at the top of Facebook's major social networking offerings? The decline in market value and the negative sentiment towards society could confirm this. Innovative technology is also rapidly transforming retail services, the media and financial services. What happens when these forces take over the huge health and education markets?

All travel is not due to mismanagement. Giants from an even older era, such as Standard Oil and AT & T, have seen their power dramatically reduced through antitrust and forced dismantling under the eyes of the federal government. . Although lawmakers today seem opposed to this type of solution, the threat is at least hypothetical. Although many scientific studies have been devoted to the Big Five affair, most opinion leaders seem to think that such a forced break is incredibly unlikely.

Whatever the reason, it is likely that in 10 years – or certainly 20 years – the current Big 5 will include names that are currently not included in any radar. Similar to Bezos' comment, Eric Schmidt, President of the Alphabet, expressed his concern over future competitors in 2014. "Somewhere, there is someone in a garage who is shooting at us." He was certain, because he then has the crowd, he was once the one in this garage, determined to transform the industry. But it's almost certainly true that somewhere, someone is aiming for first place, and it's only a matter of time.

There will always be ambitious business leaders and entrepreneurs looking to change the status quo with speed and agility. This will lead to innovations and challenges that incumbents can not easily absorb, support or eliminate. Sometimes these attacks hit the heart of an existing business and at other times they focus on a whole new untreated field.

So who can we see in tomorrow's Big Five?

Some projections

Perhaps Uber, with its ever-expanding logistical sharing platform, will occupy a prominent place; The advent of clean energy vehicles and autonomous cars could lead the dominant carpool companies to innovate even more intelligently, or even allow a new company to become known, by iterating and innovating with existing strategies in the light of technological advances.

Alibaba's global expansion will perhaps give it a prominent place, or a company that dominates an area like blockchain, artificial intelligence or the intersection of biology and information technology. Artificial intelligence is expected to have a significant and global impact on virtually all sectors. It is therefore quite possible for an AI-based technology company to rise to the top (although it has to compete directly with the likes of Microsoft and Google to get there).

The unbridled nature of business and the changing tastes and needs of consumers mean that even the most powerful companies are not immune to budding startups facing gigantic markets and tectonic mutations. .

It can be difficult to determine which companies will take the initiative and will constantly develop innovations that will appeal to huge consumers. In many cases, a new product or service that seems revolutionary can be anything but.

If I put only one bet, it would be on a company that breaks the code to provide consumer health care in a user-friendly way. Health care is a mbadive global market whose needs are not going to disappear any time soon. It is already one of the largest sectors in the United States, accounting for 17% of GDP. This number will only continue to increase as costs increase, people live longer and people with chronic diseases are more numerous than ever before.

Most of today's Big Five have been seduced by health care exploration, but you'd be hard pressed to find an evolutionary product or an identifiable strategy at the moment. Computer power and mobile technology have transformed many aspects of our daily lives, and this impact has not yet been seen in the health sector. This means that the sector remains to be fully explored and that one of the next Big Five is likely to come from this sector.

Why is it important

The importance of understanding where the next most valuable companies will come from is evident when we look at the current Big Five's influence on business management today. Amazon has defined retail and led the charge in e-commerce, Facebook has changed the communication and even marketing, Apple has led the revolutions of personal computing and smartphones, etc.

Likewise, tomorrow's "Big Five" will certainly affect the business world and society. And those of us who are able to identify the signs of change – before the next Big Five become the next titans of the industry – can quickly adapt to potentially macro mutations. -economic market.

Jeff Greenstein is an investment advisor with over 30 years of experience in fund management on behalf of leading institutional and private investors. He and his wife also run the Greenstein Family Foundation, where they seek to have the greatest impact possible with donations and research-based investments.