Uncertainty about Brexit, trade tensions between the United States and China in the spotlight



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A woman swaps sterling notes for euro banknotes during a currency exchange.

Jon Nazca | Reuters

The pound sterling was dying near this year's low against rising concerns, Boris Johnson, the favorite to replace British Prime Minister Theresa May, could put Britain on the path to a feared Brexit without agreement .

The Australian dollar is also at its lowest level since the flash crash of early January, affected by rising expectations of a further rate cut by the country's central bank and by the specter of a further slowdown in growth. China, the largest export market of Australia.

The yen and the euro have been more stable as investors seek trade indices at US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy-setting meetings, as well as at a conference organized by the European Central Bank , all programmed this week.

"The major currencies have not changed much, but many commodity currencies and emerging markets are weak, reflecting the general sentiment of risk," said Masashi Hashimoto, Senior Analyst at MUFG Bank.

Trade friction between the United States and China and rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after recent attacks on oil tankers all undermine the sense of risk, he said.

Brexit worries hit the pound, which dropped to $ 1.2532 on Monday, its lowest level in five and a half months, trading at $ 1.2539.

The pound also fell to its lowest level since January against the euro, which reached 89.50 pence, against 84.56, its lowest level in two years, reaching just over a month.

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson received a boost Monday in his campaign to succeed May while one of his former rivals and EU supporter Matt Hanbad, the supported.

This has shaken the markets since Johnson, facing the official exit campaign of the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to get the UK out of the European Union with or without agreement.

The pound sterling could be roughed up in the coming days, with many events likely to change the markets, including consumer and retail inflation, Wednesday and Thursday, and the announcement of the policy Bank of England Thursday.

The Australian dollar, risk-sensitive, dropped to $ 0.6855, just above its lowest level in five and a half months to $ 0.6849, as trade tensions between the United States and China showed few signs of decline.

Markets expect about 50% chance of a further rate cut next month by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has made its first easing for nearly three years just two weeks ago.

The euro has barely moved at $ 1.1220, while the dollar has moved little to 108.53 yen.

The dollar was slightly weakened by the New York Fed's corporate index, which recorded a record drop this month, reaching its lowest level in over two and a half years.

The Fed 's two – day policy meeting, which will begin later Tuesday, is the next major goal after the markets have anticipated more than two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year. year.

This contrasts sharply with the Fed's official March forecast that policymakers felt the next decision would be a rise.

"As markets now expect rate cuts in the second half of this year, the question is how the Fed will react to such prospects," said Shinichiro Kadota, chief strategist at Barclays.

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