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NASHVILLE – Jonna Laidlaw was terrorized by the rain. His house, with its pretty back porch, had been flooded twenty times since 2001, from a few centimeters to six feet. She and her husband would do their repairs with the help of their flood insurance, but by then, they would be flooded again.
"Every time I sprinkled it, I was terrified," she said.
When city officials offered to buy the house last year, she and her husband gladly said yes. They have since moved to the heights.
Nashville is trying to move people like the Laidlaws from flood-prone areas. The voluntary program uses a combination of federal, state and local funds to provide market value to their homes. If the owners accept the offer, they move, the city shaves the house and prohibits any future construction. The acquired land becomes an absorbing buffer zone at the edge of Creekside, much of which is used as parks with playgrounds and walking trails.
Climate change increases the urgency of the program. While A number of cities across the country have launched similar projects to deal with floods. Disaster mitigation experts consider Nashville a model to follow: the United States spends much more on helping people rebuild after a disaster than preventing problems.
David Maurstad, who heads the National Flood Insurance Program, said redemptions were the most permanent way to mitigate future flood risks. "Rebuilding from danger can help prevent future damage, unlike flood insurance," he said.
Floods are a complex phenomenon with many causes, including land-use planning and soil conditions. Climate change, which is already causing more rainfall in many storms, is an important part of the mix. A warmer atmosphere holds and releases more water.
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"We are starting to see that the number of extreme events will increase," said Barbara Mayes Boustead, climatologist and author of the latest edition of the National Climate Assessment, a report written by 13 federal agencies which explores current and future impacts of climate change. The average annual rainfall in a region can increase by an amount that seems relatively low – from 40 inches a year to 42 for example – and "in your head, you could say 'big poo'," she said. "But how it falls is the essential piece of history", with the extra sum concentrated in extreme events.
And although Nashville has not experienced the type of repeated extreme floods of a city like Houston, the effect is felt, said G. Dodd Galbreath, founding director of the ### 39; Institute for Sustainable Practice of Lipscomb University and member of the storm. water management committee. "It's a new climate," he said. "You can not rely on reliability and statistical measurement to measure risk alone."
Flood costs continue to climb, but Only 20 per cent of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Disaster Subsidy funding is earmarked for pre-disaster work, although research has shown that a dollar spent to mitigate it before a disaster save at least six dollars.
There are many reasons why more people end up rebuilding on the spot than leaving. Repayment is relatively fast, while FEMA buyback programs tend to be slow and difficult to navigate. "Many people have dropped out of the process midway," said Craig Fugate, a former FEMA official.
All over the country, offshoring is yielding results. Despite this year's floods that flooded many communities in Nebraska and the Upper Midwest, Beatrice, Neb., The waters invaded a park with 40 acres of cleared land and no homes or businesses were damaged. FEMA estimated that the city's program avoided $ 13 million in damages in 2015 alone. "People were tired of rebuilding all the time," said Tobias J. Tempelmeyer, the city's administrator.
Paul Osman, head of Flood Control Programs in the state of Illinois, said his state's program, which purchased some 6,000 structures and properties, made all the difference during this year's floods. . Instead of working in an emergency operations center, with sandbags, community shelters, cleaning debris, policing, etc., he said: event."
How has Nashville created its own program successfully? The city had already acquired experience the 2010 flood, which caused $ 2 billion in damage. Starting in 1998, he purchased 93 homes in hazardous areas, helping city officials navigate the complex mess of programs involved.
They understood that the FEMA programs did not start with money and the federal government will repay 75% of the money in most cases, with the remainder split between the state and local sources. This means that the city ultimately spends $ 12,500 of its money for every $ 100,000 it uses to buy a home. He used this leverage to gradually create financing to buy more than 400 homes and vacant land, thus spending more than $ 43 million in total.
If people do not sell after a flood, they are more likely to sell after the next, said Tom Palko, deputy director of the city's rainwater division. "You must be patient," he said, "do not get into the guns and say," We will solve everyone's problems! We will save the world! "
A topic that officials do not address in public meetings on corporate buyouts: the possible role of global warming. "I do not want to attend a public meeting and discuss climate change," Palko said. Instead, they cite the numbers: "We've had four of these events in 10 years, while there may have been only one of these events of this magnitude in the past 25 years. "
Ms. Laidlaw is satisfied with the program and the cancellation of flood insurance that went from $ 300 to $ 700 a month. When they bought the house for the first time, "they spoke like a 500-year floodplain – how lucky is it that we are there in 500 years? But it happened. "(" "Floodplain of 500 years" is a shortcut for 0.2% chance of flooding a given year.)
"The idea of not having to clean, not having to show the house" was also attractive. Said Mrs. Laidlaw. And then, "I did not really think that with the flood history, we would be able to sell it." She says that she always worries when it rains, but "I can pretty much calm myself down now."
Faye Sesler is another happy salesman. As a real estate agent, she had had the idea of buying a house in 2012 as a rental unit. She and her husband soon discovered that the pretty cove behind the house could end up in the house. And while her husband, an entrepreneur, could take care of repairs, none of them were happy with it.
"My husband, whenever it rained, he would say," Let's hope it will not be a flood. "The city program," she said, "was an investor for the wedding. "
They sold in 2016 after attending a community meeting, where "I was amazed that so many people do not want to sell. What I wanted to do was look for them, shake them up and say, "Listen, it's going to flood again." Carol Mayes tried to stay. In 2008, she returned from Washington, DC to Nashville to look after her mother, who died four years later. She now lives in her home, flooded in 2010. She turned down the offer of the city, but many neighbors retained her.
Mr. Osman, responsible for Flood Areas in Illinois, said that it could also be difficult to get older people to accept buyouts from businesses, as well as neighborhood residents. the poorest. "Nobody wants to start a mortgage once retired," Osman said. In the poorest communities of Illinois, fair market value a house could cost only $ 10,000, and "you can not buy a mobile home for that," he said. "It's a tough fight and I do not have a good answer."
Nicholas Pinter, badociate director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California at Davis, said the challenges to "overcoming social inertia" are so important because of the "keen sense of place that people have.
Even so, while moving people can be costly and contentious, he said, "It seems we will have to consider more offshoring due to flooding."
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