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Overview of the Australian Jobs Report
In early Thursday, Australian markets will see Australian employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 11:30 am Sydney / 9:30 am Singapore / HK and 1:30 pm GMT. Following the widespread rise in employment data last month, driven by the elections, investors will attend normal reading that could help them better predict the future course of Reserve Bank of Canada policy. Australia (RBA) given its focus on the unemployment rate.
The market consensus is favorable to a decline in seasonally adjusted employment from 42.3K to 10.0K, while the unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged at 5.2%. In addition, the participation rate can keep intact its previous mark of 66.00%.
TD Securities notes that last month's general election was the main factor likely to boost the employment scenario:
We expect some pay in June for the boost in jobs spurred by the May election. We expect + 5k for employment in June, with the participation rate remaining at 66% and the unemployment rate at 5.2%. The risk is that the unemployment rate will increase slightly if more people look for work.
Westpac also anticipates a decline in employment change, which reads as follows:
In Australia, we have the key employment report for June, which is expected to grow by 9,000 and see the unemployment rate stay at 5.2%. Westpac expects an increase in employment of $ 10,000, but expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1% due to a decline in the activity rate. The NAB second quarter business survey will provide additional details on the monthly reading conditions (+2) and confidence (+3) below average in June.
How could the data affect the AUD / USD?
Despite the latest RBA rate cuts, the central bank and its governor continue to highlight the unemployment rate as a key factor in future policy decisions, which increases the impact of employment data on the pair. AUD / USD. With the data likely to describe the steady state of the job market after the boost boosted by the elections, any disappointment will be taken seriously to cause further damage to the Australian pair.
Technically, an exponential 100-day moving average (EMA) of 0.7017 limits the immediate rise in the pair, targeting a resistance zone of 0.7045 / 50 including the May high and the current month. On the contrary, the 0.6980 / 85 zone becomes the key of the sellers because it includes the EMAs of July 10, 21 and 50 days. If prices fall below 0.6980, 0.6930 could return to the chart.
Key notes
AUD / USD remains slightly outperformed on Australian employment data
AUD / USD badysis: unchanged around 0.7010 ahead of employment data
About the job change
The job change published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the changing number of people employed in Australia. In general, an increase in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is considered positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is considered negative (or bearish).
About the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate rises, indicates a lack of expansion in the Australian labor market. As a result, an increase leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease in this figure is considered positive (or bullish) for the Australian dollar, while an increase is considered negative (or bearish).
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