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It started, as it is almost always nowadays, by a tweet.
Donald Trump, observing a schism forming between the leadership of the Democratic Party and a group of new progressives in Congress, decided to light a match and then dance around the flames.
On Sunday, he tweeted that a group of progressive critics in Congress, three of whom were born in the United States, should return to their home country and then shut up Wednesday night as the crowd gathered to sing with fanfare. deported.
Like the calls for imprisonment of Hillary Clinton three years ago, the singing "send it back" is not emblematic of a healthy and functioning democracy. well. He was strongly condemned. And yet, it's a storm entirely due to Mr. Trump.
The president, he should be clear at this point, is an instinctive politician. There is a risk in badigning a large strategy to one's actions. In most cases, the action comes first and the strategy follows. There are however clues to be drawn from the fire of the week on upcoming events.
Motivate the base
In all likelihood, Mr. Trump is on the road to reelection. Despite the strength of its economy, its overall approval rate hovered between 40 and 40 years during most of its presidency, and a significant portion of the electorate told investigators that they would not vote for him, no matter what. circumstances.
Traditionally, presidents-in-office have tried to broaden their electoral power during their tenure. That was not Mr. Trump's plan. His goal for 2020 is to keep what he has won in 2016, mainly by ensuring that his most dedicated supporters come to the polls again.
The mid-term elections of 2018 provide a useful insight into how it works and does not work. In most parts of the country, the participation of Trump supporters was down, Republican candidates suffered a lot and the party lost control of the House of Representatives.
In Florida, by contrast, the mid-term terms were different and the government could provide a game manual for next year's elections. Once again, the president's base revealed that Conservative candidates had overturned the candidacy of a Democratic senator and won the governor's contest. Florida was the Republican bulwark in what would otherwise have been a wave election for the opposition.
Thus, in his tweets and follow-up comments, the president throws red meat at the center of his party. Polls indicate that immigrants and immigration are suspicious and approve of the president's recent tweets.
There have always been accusations of racism at the expense of the president's policy, since he has bent over plots surrounding Barack Obama's birth certificate and he's pursued it. his appeal for a ban on Muslim immigration, the dismissal of a judge born in the United States who had judged him "Mexican" and his comment that there were some "very good people" among white nationalists carrying torch in Charlottesville. And yet, or perhaps because of this, members of the Republican Party supported the president with a record number.
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The fact that the four women whom the president has chosen to criticize is a minority should not be surprising.
This movement is likely to turn against us. This could alienate the elusive electorate or end up motivating his opponents as much or more than his base. And that virtually guarantees that the nation will remain desperately divided – perhaps ungovernable – in the foreseeable future.
It is however his best badet to win four more years.
Decrease and divide democrats
One of the reasons Mr. Trump was elected to the presidency in 2016 is that a sufficient number of voters, especially in the most influential states of the central West, considered him the least bad choice. As Dave Weigel, Washington Post reporter, points out, the 20% of Michigan voters who did not like the two candidates, 21% more than Mr. Trump on the Democratic Hillary Clinton.
There is not yet a Democratic candidate that Mr. Trump can pursue – it will come later. Meanwhile, however, he chooses potential targets, including Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the other women of the "team's" declared minority. It's a glimpse of how unpleasant things will happen.
While national attention was focused on the racist connotations of his "going back" on crime-infested places "tweets, the purpose of his attack was to sow division between these women and the Speaker of the House of Representatives In his follow-up tweets, he referred to his past criticisms of US government policy and attempted to portray their "radical" or "socialist" policies as a threat to American peace and prosperity.
On several occasions, the President has explicitly stated that his team is now linked to the Democratic Party and that it would cost them dearly in the 2020 elections.
When trying to determine the president's plan, reading between the lines is sometimes not necessary. He just went out and said what he's trying to do.
Dominate the news
The simplest way to understand the president's incendiary tweets, and his decision to accept them fully in the midst of the resulting conflagration, is to consider chaos and indignation as the essential point, and not as the sub-point. -product.
At the "Social Media Summit" at the White House last week, Mr. Trump said he had paid special attention to the performance of his publications on social networks and had boasted of retweets that he had received when he had written that Mr. Obama had his "trendy sons in Trump Tower" – a line that at the time generated an inordinate amount of criticism and tension.
Since he's launched his presidential campaign in 2015, Mr. Trump has been a controversial machine in perpetuity. He installs it; he welcomes him. And, by the way, he has reached the pinnacle of power in American politics.
Although the correlation does not imply a causal link, it can be easy for the president – who must be remembered to have conducted only one political campaign of his life – to deduce from it. that in this case, it is the case.
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