[ad_1]
Our incredible predictive modeling system ADL predicted a moderate price anomaly on July 10th.th, 2019 in crude oil. We wrote about this oil set up on July 10th. In this article, we suggested that crude oil would alternate fairly quickly with levels close to $ 47 to $ 48, then find moderate support in December and January, with support ranging from $ 45 to $ 50. After that, the price of oil is expected to weaken considerably, while the price could fall to a level below $ 30 ppb due to extremely low prices.
We expect sales to ease or weaken slightly early next week as earnings continue to hit the news cycle and future expectations are adjusted to reflect this data. Some data will be released next week with the world's largest companies publishing their data and expectations for the third quarter. We believe that this news / data will lead to a brief pause in the drop in oil prices and allow operators to prepare for the next downturn.
This daily chart of crude oil highlights the price declines observed this week when oil collapsed against the $ 60 target announced in our oil video forecast in early June. The chart below also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool which currently suggests that support will be found just above $ 51 ppb – which is the low price floor level of early June 2019. A slight resistance is also found near $ 56.70 (the projected price level BLUE). This level will likely act as a "congestion fork" when the price fluctuates and attempts another negative step.
This weekly chart on crude oil highlights the overall picture of oil. The recent price drop has just crossed the Fibonacci bearish trigger level (RED LINE of nearly $ 55.20) and this violation suggests that the downward price movement may well begin. We believe that the ultimate downside targets of around $ 40 to $ 44 will be supported over the next 30 to 60 days. Beyond these levels, the price may continue to fall to possibly below $ 30 in the first or second quarter of 2020, which would likely be a significant cause of the pending bear market.
Final thoughts:
Such a deep movement in crude oil prices like this would suggest that economic weakness and supply / demand problems are the root causes of the collapse of crude oil prices.
If the downward trend continues, as we suggest, many foreign countries will be subject to extreme economic pressures and currency / currency support levels may be threatened as the fundamentals of many oil-based economies begin. to collapse. This could create an extreme debt / credit problem for many countries around the world and push the US dollar well above $ 100. The implications for broad trade and trends are incredible considering the scale of economic change that will occur if crude oil starts trading at less than $ 30 in early 2020.
Crude oil, worth between $ 30 and $ 40, could create a spark or deepen the long-awaited bear market. Almost all the signs indicate that this is about to begin, so get ready. If you would like someone to guide you over the next 12 to 24 months with a detailed market badysis and commercial alerts (entry, target and exit price levels), join my ETF trading bulletin.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Source link
