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Could Dish become a "scariest challenger" for T-Mobile than Sprint?
Some Wall Street badysts believe that allowing Dish Network to enter the wireless business, a long-time dream for CEO Charles Ergen, is not a smart move for T-Mobile. For example, Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson says Dish could be a "scariest" competitor for T-Mobile than Sprint currently is. After all, if T-Mobile does not get it, Sprint could remain a weak T-Mobile competitor and continue to lose customers. Instead, a merged T-Mobile-Sprint should deal with a company such as Dish, which would probably be ready to lower T-Mobile's prices from the first day.
"If Dish enters the market with a large amount of capacity and no significant subscriber base [average revenue per user] to defend, they would have every interest in the world to be a disruptive discounter. There is no need to believe in a subsequent deal with Amazon, Google or a cable operator to consider this a bad thing for the market, or worse than the "no deal" scenario for T-Mobile. – Craig Moffett, Analyst, MoffettNathanson
Those familiar with T-Mobile's thinking claim that Dish's wireless service will lose a lot of money in the early years. Indeed, under the terms of the MVNO agreement, Dish will have to surrender 50% of the revenue it generates to T-Mobile. But things will change once Dish has its own operational 5G network. Analysts say the Dish network will be more efficient than others because it will be specifically designed for 5G service. As it will be brand new, Dish's network will not be used to connect its clients with 2G, 3G or even 4G dataspeeds.
There is another problem that could block the merger. A lawsuit filed by 13 state attorneys general and the District of Columbia seeks to block the deal. However, a lawsuit may not start until October at the earliest. Unless the judge in charge of the case makes a temporary ban, T-Mobile and Sprint could get the green light to end this long-running drama this week.
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