James Cameron's "Avatar" Suites pose a huge risk to Disney

If you asked someone to name one of the main characters in the movie "Avatar", there is a good chance they could not do it. That's the risk that Disney has taken by pursuing James Cameron's vision of four other "Avatar" movies.

Although Avatar rose to the top of the box office in 2009 and held the title of the most profitable film for a decade before being dethroned last weekend by "Avengers: Endgame", the movie itself has never really made its entrance into the world of cinema. pop culture in the same way as "Star Wars", Marvel or even "Princess Bride".

While the film was praised for its masterly visuals and Cameron's groundbreaking work was changing the way movies were shot, he was rarely mentioned after a few years, with the exception of the occasional story of the film. another film approaching the box office record "Avatar".

Toy sales have fizzled and cosplayers dressed in thick blue makeup at Comic-Cons have become scarce.

So, why would Disney come back to such a risky franchise?

Disney was not the one who gave the green light to the four sequels of the 2009 hit. It was 20th Century Fox. For years, Cameron and the studio have hinted that they would produce more "Avatar" movies. However, delays delayed production and potential release dates continued to be postponed. In 2017, the first suite was scheduled for December 2020.

This date would change, once again, after Disney bought Fox in 2019.

Disney did not need the "Avatar" suites, said Jeff Bock, senior box office badyst at Exhibitor Relations. "But, James Cameron is one of those guys you want in your stable."

Cameron is an esteemed filmmaker whose films have grossed more than $ 6.14 billion in global box office and currently has two of the top five hit movies of all time.

"As for the box office, James Cameron never loses," said Bock.

Part of what made "Avatar" so appealing to the audience was the technology that Cameron helped develop to film and animate the film. The film was shot using the Fusion Camera System, a digital camera system created by Cameron and Vince Pace.

Previous systems used two cameras because filmmakers had determined that the human brain was processing different pieces of information from different parts of the brain. Thus, one part of the brain would process the movement of the image, while the other would process what was happening in the image.

Cameron and Pace have designed a camera capable of capturing images in the same way as a human eye. The results are breathtaking – just look at ticket sales. According to Shawn Robbins, chief badyst at Boxoffice.com, about 80% of tickets sold for "Avatar" were intended for 3D projections, which tends to be more expensive than ordinary tickets.

Not to mention that the same motion capture technology that gave life to creatures like Gollum's "Lord of the Rings" has also been used to inform the movements and facial expression of the actors playing the Na & # 39; vi.

"He is a meticulous perfectionist and that's why people love his films," he said. "The only thing I've learned is to never doubt James Cameron."

"Avatar" was nominated for nine Oscars in 2010 and won three awards: Best Cinematographic Achievement, Best Visual Effects Achievement and Best Direction Art Direction.

Cameron has long teased that the first "Avatar" sequel would involve a deep dive into Pandora's oceans.

"He has spent the last 10 years perfecting underwater videography," said Bock. "What he's going to do with the underwater sequences in 'Avatar 2' is going to blow up the spirits … just for curiosity [this film] will make $ 1 billion ".

Not to mention the 3D movies and IMAX projections have become extremely popular, especially internationally. And we must not forget that "Avatar" has generated most of his money outside the United States – a whopping $ 2.03 billion of the $ 2.779 billion he has ambaded during his race.

China, in particular, will be a huge market for these films. The country is fast becoming one of the world's largest film markets, with many badysts suggesting it could overtake the United States to become the film's biggest market this year. Last year, China recorded $ 8.87 billion at its counter while the United States raised more than $ 11 billion.

It's also a huge market for American production films. "Avengers: Endgame" has made more than $ 614 million of its $ 2.7 billion transported from the country and "Fate of the Furious" generated $ 392 million of its $ 1.2 billion managed by China .

By comparison, "Avatar" had gained about $ 204.1 million in China a decade earlier.

There is a lot of risk for Disney to bring "Avatar" back to the movies.

While moviegoers were delighted with the visuals, there was no overwhelming emotional connection to the characters. That's one of the reasons why toy sales have been so low, said Jim Silver, CEO of TTPM, an online toy reading site.

A film must have three elements to succeed in retail, he said.

A: The spectators must have an emotional attachment to the characters. Watch characters like Iron Man or Han Solo, which attract a lot of collectors. People will buy goods, whether it's toys, t-shirts or coffee mugs, they like the character.

Two: The costume of the character must be translated into a dress up or role play item. Stormtrooper's armor, Luke Skywalker's lightsaber, Maui hook, and Belle's iconic yellow dress are all examples of items translated from the film into a toy or costume.

Three: You need a good bad guy. Think: Darth Vader, Thanos and the Joker.

"Avatar" did not have any of these elements, Silver says.

"When the movie came out, its appearance dazzled people, but I think people have an emotional connection to the visuals and not the story," said Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst at Comscore.

Cameron has had 10 years to work on the story of "Avatar 2" and the characters in the first film are about to come back, so it's possible that fans who were not so attached to Jake Sully and Neytiri develop a better emotional connection in the film. next payment.

If this is the case, and if Cameron can provide a more powerful villain than Colonel G.I.J.O.E.-Esq, Colonel Miles Quaritch, Disney could create a line of successful toys for the film.

Admittedly, Disney has been producing Avatar products for several years now. "Pandora: The World of Avatar", an expansion area of ​​Disney's Animal Kingdom in Orlando, Florida, was opened in mid-2017.

Inside, guests have access to two rides – Avatar Flight of Pbadage and the trip on the Na River – as well as products on the theme "Avatar" – T-shirts, Na's headbands and plush toys. Disney opened this park before acquiring 20th Century Fox.

A successful film franchise could breathe new life into the park and increase attendance. Disney has recently enjoyed great success in movie-related parks, like the "Toy Story Land" in its Hollywood Studios Park in Orlando and its Star Wars Park: Galaxy's Edge in California. (A second Galaxy's Edge is expected to open in Orlando at the end of August.)

"Disney does not risk anything with" Avatar 2 "and" Avatar 3 "," said Bock. "Avatar 4" and "Avatar 5" are the risk. "

Cameron said that he was directing the first two suites, but it's possible that he's siding with the background. And it would not be rare for Cameron. He notably worked on the first two films of "Terminator" and played a role of producer for the other feature films of the franchise.

There are a lot of questions to be answered, but the clarity will not happen anytime soon. "Avatar 2" should not be released in theaters until December 2021.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. "Fate of the Furious" is a production of Universal Studios.