Tesla is worth $ 45 a share, according to its most bearish analyst on Wall Street

Tesla's losses in the second quarter took many investors by surprise on Wednesday, cutting the electric car maker's shares by 15 percent and wiping out about $ 5 billion of the company's market value.

For Gordon Johnson of Vertical Research, however, it was more of a claim than a surprise.

According to a poll by Bloomberg, Johnson has long been the lowest price target for Tesla among Wall Street sellers badysts. And Friday, he doubled his critics, reducing his forecast to $ 45, 80% less than the stock market Friday morning.

"Tesla is currently considered a technology company," he said in a note to customers. "However, in reality, it is a capital-intensive automobile company, in a sector characterized by cyclicality.We believe that if Street redefined the value of the company as a car company compared with to a technology company, its price-to-book ratio will go down. "

Read more: "You have to move on": the biggest bull in Tesla explains what's missing from the rest of Wall Street – and why Elon Musk intends to fail on purpose

For its valuation – one that is significantly lower than other very bearish badysts at bulging banks like Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan, among others – Johnson uses a price-to-book ratio. By using this measure, Tesla is trading at more than six times its book value, while most other securities in the auto sector typically trade at around 1.1 times the measure. Given this multiple, Tesla should be worth $ 45 per share, said Johnson.

"People do not stop saying" look at their revenue growth and value it on a multiple of income, "said Johnson." We think revenue will go down because in the third VE incentive was further reduced by $ 1,850, which came into effect on July 1. "

Then there is the cash flow problem

Tesla's free cash flow reached $ 614 million for the second quarter, the company said in its earnings report. But inside this measure, there was a more disturbing measure: capital spending, said Johnson.

"Tesla's cap-ex during the quarter was a joke," he said of the $ 249.7 million position reported. "In the last three quarters, Tesla's cap-ex has been amortized, which means it's not investing enough to maintain its equipment." That's not what companies are doing growing."

Competition will also be a problem as more and more high-end electric models of automakers like Audi and BMW hit the market at an accelerated pace, according to Johnson.

"People are talking about" when will you start to see cracks in Tesla's growth? "Well, you already see them, they are just people who do not know them," he said.

"When the snowball starts to hit the hill, we think it will be very hasty," he added.