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Prosperity does not cover everything. New discreetly released data late last week underscores the staggering pace of renewable energy growth in Australia.
Nearly 3.5 gigawatts of large-scale clean energy projects were built in 2018. In terms of capacity, this capacity is more than double that of Hazelwood, the gigantic Victorian brown coal power plant that has closed suddenly a few years ago. previous record for renewable energy installed in one year, established in 2017.
In terms of production, the amount of clean electricity sent to Australian homes and businesses is expected to increase 36% this year and 25% next year.
The Clean Energy Regulator, which released the report, says Australia is the world leader in renewable energy per capita.
In a result deemed almost impossible four years ago, the country has already committed enough projects to reach the national renewable energy target by 2020, about 23% of the total. Electricity required. The regulator said that Australia would almost generate a clean energy level next year, which parliament decided to avoid in 2015, after the Abbott government considered removing the goal of 2020 before reducing it by about one-fifth.
As the target is exceeded and the badociated incentives can no longer be used for new developments, badysts believe that large clean energy plants are being built, based more on commercial factors. While state goals play a role, especially in Victoria, the dramatic fall in the cost of clean energy has led companies to sign direct contracts with new renewable energy providers in order to reduce the cost of clean energy. avoid high prices, especially in New South Wales and Victoria.
Hugh Saddler, Energy Consultant and Honorary Associate Professor at the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy, says the pace of growth equals the electricity boom of the 1950s when new coal and hydro have transformed the electrical system. In a new report from the progressive think tank, the Australian Institute, he states that the most populous state, NSW, has doubled the power it has received from large wind and solar power plants in just 14 months.
"There are just a lot of projects going on," says Saddler. "NSW has lagged behind South Australia and Victoria for wind turbines in particular, and Queensland has been even worse, but that has changed."
He said the new renewable energy projects in New South Wales should fill the void that will occur when the Liddell Coal Plant is shut down in 2022, a planned event deemed potentially disastrous. when the Malcolm Turnbull-led coalition tried to put pressure on the plant. owner, AGL, to reconsider his decision.
The rise of clean generation creates conditions that would have been unthinkable not so long ago. For a brief period last weekend, the wind and the sun captured so much energy, and the demand for electricity consumption went down so much that the spot price of wholesale electricity fell simultaneously. $ 0 in each of the five Eastern states connected by the national network. Grid. At that time, 44% of electricity used in the market came from renewable sources, compared to 26% throughout the week.
As far as electricity bills are concerned, the zero price was essentially of no consequence. It was brief – most of the electricity is sold at long-term contract prices and the wholesale price is only a fraction of what people ultimately pay. But Tristan Edis, director and badyst at Green Energy Markets, a consultant, says it was a significant moment for what he says. "I've been surprised that this is happening, but it tells us that it could soon happen on days when the demand is not low," he says. "We are adding a lot of solar energy compared to the existing solar energy at the moment. It makes a real difference in the middle of the day. "
The ongoing transformation poses serious questions for regulators and generating companies. Coal-fired power plants, which still provide more than 60% of the grid's electricity, have traditionally been considered inflexible and capable of operating 24 hours a day. Some NSW black coal plants are closed during periods when they are not available. is not profitable to exploit them. Others are under increasing pressure as the amount of renewable energy production increases. Although the government is now asking power generators to give three years' notice to shut down a power plant – an attempt to prevent the sudden shutdown of Hazelwood from happening again – badysts say it is highly likely that some will stop working sooner than expected.
A big question for the clean energy sector is: can the pace of investment last? As Guardian Australia pointed out last year, it was generally accepted that clean energy investments and the pace of change in the system would slow down once the renewable energy goal ceases to drive new projects unless a new national policy does not replace them. The federal government does not plan to present one, beyond a short list of projects that it plans to subscribe but that remains to be developed. State objectives have generally been considered insufficient to fill the gap.
This remains the most popular sight. According to the Clean Energy Regulator, investments after 2020 remain uncertain. Last year, the Australian electricity market operator found, however, that even a commercial strategy, including Victoria's 50% renewable energy target, would likely lead to about 46% of clean energy. 'here 2030. Analyzes have shown that Australia could and would need to do more to play its part in achieving the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, which is to limit the heating at a temperature as close as possible to 1.5 ° C.
Edis points out that some of the clean energy investment decisions that were made were made when wholesale prices were high. As production increases, supply exceeds demand, and prices fall, there is less incentive to build unless a government policy is in place. required.
"To be honest, I was expecting investment to have slowed down a bit earlier," says Edis. "My feeling is that it should disappear within the next six months or so. Investors will then look for the next coal plant to transform it. "
The saddler is less certain. He sees obstacles to continued investment, including the challenge of connecting clean power plants to green grid sites and the need to "tune up" variable renewable energy generation with the green grid. increase in transmission and energy storage cables between states. But he says badysts and bureaucrats are increasingly thinking that some spending may continue unexpectedly a year ago.
"It's really just the Commonwealth that's holding things back," he says. "The question now is: what is the importance of a brake?"
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