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By Smt. Maneka Sanjay Gandhi
Do people really understand climate change and global warming? A few days of unusual cold bring back the skeptic to everyone – if the earth warms up, so why do we have low temperatures, is a common question.
That the earth is warming is no longer a questionable question. It is. But will the heat kill you? Yes. But not directly. You can still walk barefoot on the grbad without burning your feet!
You will be killed by viruses, insects, tsunamis and cyclones, jellyfish in the oceans, lack of water.
The new kings of the earth are preparing to take their throne: mosquitoes.
Just as birds flock to warmer areas when winter sets in, wild creatures look for the time that suits them. But climate change is displacing this comfort zone for many animals, including disease-carrying mosquitoes.
Mosquitoes are the deadliest animals in the world. Their ability to transmit and transmit the disease to humans causes millions of deaths each year. The incidence of dengue fever worldwide has increased 30-fold over the last 30 years. It reaches 400 million people a year. A quarter of them are sick enough to be hospitalized and more and more countries are reporting their first outbreaks of the disease. Zika, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever are all transmitted to humans by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, to name only two species. (Malaria transmitted by the Culex mosquito needs a whole article).
And global warming allows them to conquer the world.
Published in Nature Microbiology in March 2019, scientists from the Boston Children's Hospital, Oxford University, the University of Washington, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and from the Université Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium) combined all available data on climate, urbanization, migration and research. human movements and established models for predicting the likely spread of two major disease-spreading mosquitoes – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The models predict that by 2050, 49% of the world's population will live in areas where these species are established, if greenhouse gas emissions are maintained at current rates. "We find evidence that if no action is taken to reduce the current rate of global warming, pockets of habitat will open in many urban areas with vast amounts of individuals." likely to be infected ",
The team collected data on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus distributions over time at more than 3,000 sites from the 1970s onwards. They mapped current locations that they considered suitable for mosquitoes, then projected their relevance in 2020, 2050 and 2080, based on various climate models, urban growth projections and other variables. They included human migration and movement patterns, using census data and cell phone records.
Their findings: Aedes aegypti has spread in the north at a relatively constant rate, about 150 miles per year. Aedes albopictus is most rapidly spread between 1990 and 1995. In Europe, Aedes albopictus has developed more rapidly, from 62 to 93 km per year over the past five years.
Aedes aegypti is expected to spread not only in its current tropical range, but also in the new temperate zones of the United States and China, reaching respectively north of Chicago and Shanghai, by 2050. Aedes albopictus should spread widely throughout Europe. over the next 30 years. It is also expected to arrive in the northern United States and in the mountainous regions of South America and East Africa. If climate change is not under control by 2050, the gap should be even larger. The Zika virus began two years ago in South America and has already spread very rapidly, despite border control measures.
According to Professor Paul Auerbach, co-author of the book Enviromedics: The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health, climate change is the next big threat to health. As the world warms, mosquitoes will move beyond their current habitats, shifting the burden of diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya and West Nile virus into temperate and colder regions.
Stanford biologist Erin Mordecai and colleagues at the Stanford School of Medicine have also forecast how climate change will change the places where mosquito species are most comfortable and their speed of disease spread. Economic development and warmer temperatures have largely prevented mosquito-borne diseases from entering the richest countries of the Northern Hemisphere, but climate change will tip the balance in the direction opposite.
Their findings: Malaria is most likely to spread to 25 degrees Celsius (78 degrees Fahrenheit) while the risk of Zika is highest at 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit). Dengue transporters need the warmest climates and will therefore continue to rage in hot regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. However, mosquitoes carrying West Nile virus prefer a more temperate climate and will migrate to colder regions as the climate warms up.
According to a study by Dr. Soeren Metelmann et al. From the University of Liverpool, almost all of England and Wales could be hot enough for the Aedes species by the 2060s. Metelmann and his colleagues have created a model combining knowledge of the mosquito life cycle and NASA's British climate forecasts for the period 2060-2069. Until now, tropical mosquitoes accompany British travelers during the hot summer months and survive – and even breed – for a few weeks before disappearing in winter. However, his team's research shows that, in the near future, such introductions could lead to the establishment of resident populations that will survive the winter.
An international team, including Moritz Kraemer from Oxford University, has conducted an independent study that predicts mosquitoes will spread throughout Europe over the next 30 years. Originally from East Asia, insects have spread to Europe since the 1970s and are now as far north as Germany and southeastern England. During the last decade, chikungunya epidemics have occurred in Italy, showing that the spread of such mosquito-transmitted viruses in Europe is possible. By 2080, they predict that the mosquito will be present in 197 countries of the world, of which 20 detect for the first time its presence.
The mosquito seems to function as a pathogenic missile caused by heat. Scientists say that the hotter the weather, the more effectively the mosquito transmits various dangerous diseases. Mosquitoes live 10 to 12 days and that is the time it takes for a virus to grow in the intestine, which makes it infectious. A warmer air incubates the virus faster in the cold-blooded mosquito, so the insect has more time to be infectious. Higher temperatures accelerate larval development, resulting in an increase in the number of adult populations, autumnal development of the immature and, consequently, an increase in eggs during the winter. Warmer temperatures make the mosquito more hungry, which requires more blood meals and spreads more infection. Warmer temperatures also increase the mosquito population.
Zika, for example, has been declared a global public health emergency after being badociated with brain malformations in babies in South America. The epidemics of Zika depend on temperature and drought. According to NASA data, Recife, Brazil, the largest city in the Zika-affected region, recorded its hottest record ever recorded in September-October-November, of about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 ° Fahrenheit) above normal.
Aedes albopictus, a vector of a known vector of chikungunya virus, dengue virus and heartworm disease, has experienced spectacular global expansion facilitated by human activities, including the movement of used tires lucky bamboo & # 39; (unique reason for its spread in Belgium). Netherlands) – those awful sticks they put in glbades of water and give to the main guests. It was reported for the first time in Europe in 1979 in Albania. In 1985, it was reported for the first time in Texas, United States. Now it is found in 32 US states, including Hawaii. In Latin America, it was reported for the first time in Brazil in 1986. In Africa, it was first detected in 1990 in South Africa. It is now ranked among the top 100 invasive species by the invasive species group. This mosquito already shows signs of adaptation to colder climates, which could lead to the transmission of diseases to new regions. It has already caused outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy and France and dengue fever in France and Croatia.
This is not just the spread of the disease. Aedes albopictus is currently considered a serious nuisance for humans, where it greatly reduces the quality of life. Adult females bite aggressively, usually during the day, both indoors and outdoors. Its prevalence is linked to a reduction in children's outdoor physical activity time, a factor contributing to childhood obesity.
Traditionally, the aedes albopictus needs an average winter temperature of 0 ° C to allow egg overwintering, an average annual temperature of 11 ° C for survival and survival. 39, activity of adults and about 500 mm of annual rainfall. Optimal development requires a summer temperature of 2530 degrees Celsius. It is now reported that populations are establishing in areas with lower average temperatures (5-28.5 ° C) and less precipitation (290 mm per year).
Aedes albopictus may be the vector of at least 22 other viruses, including yellow fever virus, Rift Valley fever virus, Japanese encephalitis virus and West Nile virus. . Thus, its spread is significant for human survival.
Can a mosquito carry several diseases at the same time? Can one catch more of a one bite illness? Studies in Gabon and India show that humans can be infected with both chikungunya and dengue fever. Coinfection poses a challenge for accurate diagnosis, especially when symptoms, such as fever and body aches, may be similar.
Remember that every time you eat meat or allow a tree to be cut – the two main reasons for climate change.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
Twitter: @ManekaGandhiBJP
NOTE: The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of New Delhi Times (NDT).
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