By-elections in Liberia: an election against Weah?

Liberians will go to the polls on Monday (July 29th) for an election deemed a test of President George Weah's popularity and how Liberians feel about his administration. The race consists of choosing a senator and a representative for the county of Montserrado, the largest county in the country.

There are seven candidates for the District 15 representative seat and seven for the Senator position in the county. The ruling party, the Coalition for Democratic Change, CDC, has Paulita Wie for the Senate and Abu Kamara for the representative. They will meet respectively with Abraham Dillon and Telia Urey of the four opposition parties and independent candidates, including Macdella Cooper, Kimmie Weeks and Samuel Elders for the upper house and Kevin Bayoh and Erasmu Fahnbulleh for the lower house of Congress. The seats became vacant when Senator Geraldine Doe Sheriff and Representative Adolph Lawrence died separately. She was originally a CDC senator, but later joined the former ruling party, the Party of Unity, UP. Lawrence was a CDCian.

Montserrado County is the main stronghold of the CDC. The party has dominated county politics over the past 14 years. In 2005, the party won both senator seats. He won the 2009 senatorial elections and the 2014 and 2018 seats, overwhelmingly beating President Sirleaf's son Robert Sirleaf. This 2014 election made George Weah senator. CDC Sah Joseph replaced him when he became president in 2018 after the 2017 presidential election. The party also holds most of the county representatives seats.

The four collaborative opposition parties; The Party of Unity, the Freedom Party, the National Alternate Congress and the All Liberian Party do not think that the CDC controls Montserrado, claiming that the party has lost ground and that Weah's popularity in the county and national level has declined since his conquest of the presidency. A typical example is the embarrbading defeat of John Weah, hand-selected candidate, in the District 13 representation race in 2019 to replace Sah Joseph. The district was a stronghold of the CDC and the representative won it twice in a row. But Edward Flomo (Green Color), independent and former bodyguard George Weah, beat the CDC candidate.

The opposition further baderts that the president has an unpopular rating nationwide due to his poor management of the county's economy. Commodity prices and the US exchange rate have risen, causing extreme economic hardships in the country. For this reason, the opposition concludes that the voters of Montserrado will vote against the CDC candidates and that the opposition will prevail. Thus, for the parties that collaborate, this election is against and concerns Weah.

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
Paulita Wie is Deputy Minister at the Ministry of the Interior. Previously, she ran an NGO and implemented development programs in the country. She is actively from District 8, where she failed in a lively primary election in 2017. Abu Kamara is a former badistant minister of the Ministry of Transportation under the Sirleaf administration. He was declared ineligible to participate in the 2017 elections because of codes of conduct. He is an active resident of District 15.

Abraham Dillon is a leader of the Freedom Party and spokesperson for the Patriots Council, the organization that led the June 7 demonstration. He was a former staff member of Senator Jewel Howard Taylor, who is now Liberian Vice President. In 2009, he was a candidate for the Senate for Montserrado County without success. Telia Urey is an entrepreneur. She did not work in the government. She is the daughter of Benoni Urey, political leader of the All Liberian party and regarded as one of the Liberian millionaires. She promises to give her government salary and benefits to the district if elected.

For independent candidates, Macdella Cooper is a philanthropist and runs an NGO. She was a presidential candidate in the 2017 general election. She supported the CDC in the second round. Kimmie Weeks is also a philanthropist. He has served on the board of the Sirleaf Government Water and Sewer Corporation. Like Urey, he plans to give his salary and benefits to the county if he is elected. Samuel Enders is the District 6 representative. He has a school in the district and is independent in the House of Representatives. The other independent candidates are Mohammed Dukuly and Mbada Kanyon.

Public opinion on the candidates has been mixed. Some voters say that Wie lacks legislative experience and looks like a girl. Others say his experience in urban affairs and nonprofit programs would benefit the county in the Senate. The position has been led by women in the past and her election would contribute to the need for gender equality and opportunities in the legislature. Abu Kamara has experience working in government and is active in the district and understands the problems of the community. However, a recent revelation that he defrauded the government in his previous position in the government raised the question of his character.

Abraham Dillon, as stated previously, has work experience as a former Senate staff member. This is a lawyer. But many voters believe that he would not contribute much to the Senate, pointing out that he has no university degree or that he has not completed his high school education. Losine Kamara, owner of an electronics store, said that Dillon would do the county a disservice, "he has nothing to offer, he is hungry, he is unemployed and will only do make noise, in the image of Yekeh Kelubah, "added Losine. But DJ, a customer and a regular visitor to the Losine store, disagrees, saying that Dillon's advocacy would add a voice to the Senate for the poor. Other voters criticized the fact that Dillon let out a government scholarship to attend a college in the United States "but he came home without anything, another opportunity was given to him and he did the same. Why should he be rewarded with one of the nation's important political positions?

Telia Urey's promise to provide her representative income to the district is remarkable and inviting. She speaks softly and employs many residents in her business. However, she is considered a foreigner who has just moved to the district to become a politician. It is said that she has no voter registration card for the district and that she would not even vote for herself in the district during this election. Others think that she was selected on the festive ticket because of her father and bears her name.

Kimmie Weeks is considered positively as a young person, articulate and concerned about the country. But it is not well known. Joshua Nugbe, who said he would vote for him, did not think Weeks would win because so many people ignore him.

Macdella Cooper gained notoriety in the 2017 elections, but she does not make many public appearances in this election. The people in charge of his campaign promoted him mainly on the radio. In addition, it is seen on large billboards.

We did not talk much about Enders. While some viewers respect him for dismissing Henry Costa, host of a popular radio show, in the representative elections of 2017, others think he should focus on district 6 representation. and not on the Senate.

Kelvin Bayoh is an independent District 15 representative and is the protégé of the late representative Lawrence. He promises to continue Lawrence's good work and has been endorsed by the Lawrence family, but it seems that few campaigns have been conducted by his camp. Erasmu Fahnbulleh is a district activist. Although he recently denied the Urey team's statement that he had pulled out of the race and endorsed Urey, just like Bayoh, his campaign did not do much about him. The other two independent candidates are Siebo Frank and Amos Nyan-Tabor. Their names also did not announce much in the election.

WHO WILL WIN?
This election has local and national involvement. As mentioned earlier, the main opposition bloc is campaigning on the Weah presidency. For the opposition, the loss of its candidates would mean that things are not going well for the Liberian people and that would send a powerful message to the president for him to wake up. But if the CDC candidates win, it would show that the people do not listen to the opposition and that the CDC is really the political king of Montserrado and that the president is still popular. Some opposition supporters say they would stop talking if the CDC won. Representative Yekeh Kelubah, a strong critic of the president, said he would join the party if the CDC is victorious. Some badysts believe, however, that this statement is intended to incite his supporters to vote against the ruling party.

In the last two months, the campaign has really been heated. In June of this year, President Weah said at a CDC rally that Dillon was to return to school, just like him, Weah, when the Liberian people did not elect him president in 2005, because he had dropped out of school. "I went back to school and got a master's degree," he said, adding that Dillon should do the same. Weah also accused Benoni Urey of being a killer and a thief. He called Talia Urey a little girl and said the Ureys would not win an election during this period. Some badysts have considered the remarks to be below the waist. But others were not in agreement. For example, Dweh Boley, a former LPRC official, said that Urey had started the fight when he had called CDCians badroaches at a political event. Urey's daughter, Telia, described the CDCians as tiny CDCians.

Looking at the activities of the campaign, it seems that the race is taking place between the CDC and the four opposition parties that are collaborating. An independent might do well, though.

Campaigning for a political election is expensive. A candidate must be financially capable. One way to see if a campaign is financially sound is to look at its level of campaign and advertising. A financially prepared campaign includes large billboards and vague advocacy and advocacy in the media. In this election, Paulita Wie appears on large billboards with an image of the president placed in strategic areas, usually in busy streets. Macdella Cooper has some big billboards, followed by Kimmie Weeks, but few. These panels are supplemented by leaflets. Dillon, Urey and other independent candidates do not have big billboards. They have flyers. In addition, Wie and Abu Kamara's campaign T-shirts carry pictures of the candidates along with those of President Weah. The other candidates do not have that. Their individual T-shirts carry only their photos and not their political leaders. This is important in a political campaign advertisement. A local candidate usually has the endorsement or the photo of the political party leader. Good image and support are needed for an election campaign.

At the recent launch of Dillon's campaign on July 13th, the campaign did not seem to have enough t-shirts. Instead, he used Freedom Party campaign t-shirts with photos of Charles Brumskine and Harrison Karnwea, presidential and vice presidential candidates for 2017. It appeared that the Dillon Was not enough money to buy adequate t-shirts for this election. . The Brumskine-Karwea t-shirts were distributed to people in the streets. In the ELWA junction area, a pedestrian wearing the t-shirt stated that it was given to him and that, since it was free, he took it with happiness. When asked if he knew Dillon and would vote in the elections, he did not answer. Political leaders of the main opposition, especially Brumskine of the Freedom Party, did not attend the launch of the campaign. Senator Nyonblee Karngar Lawrence, who succeeded Brumskine as the current Chair, did not participate. This would indicate that Dillon does not have the full support of the leaders.

Many of those who attended Dillon's rally at the Unity Party headquarters and Liberty headquarters later went to the CDC headquarters, which is not far from Liberty headquarters. It was not strange. That's what happened in 2017 when some of those who attended the Liberty Party rally then went to a nearby CDC event. I have indicated this phenomenon in my cover of the last Freedom Party rally in 2017. This shows that a large crowd at a political event in Liberia does not necessarily mean that the party will win . Although the Liberty party gathered a large crowd, it ranked third in the 2017 presidential election.

Voter turnout is the key. In general, the turnout rate for by-elections in Liberia is low. In particular, when there are no big names in the race, the participation rate is lower. The weather is also a factor. An election on a rainy day would have a low turnout. July is a rainy month in Liberia. This could affect the participation rate.

However, based on recent county voting data, a low and high participation rate would be beneficial for the CDC. But the opposition could win if a significant number of CDCians cross over opposition at the polls. The arrival of Macdalla Cooper, Mbada Kanyon, could divide the votes of women, for the benefit of the opposition. But they are not actively campaigning as previously mentioned, especially Cooper. In addition, Kevin Bayoh from District 15 could be the surprise horse. As mentioned earlier, his nomination is supported by the Lawrence family. The late representative was very much loved and had overwhelming support in the district.

If the opposition loses, it could scream for being deceived. This could indicate that the many changes in the election date are meant to benefit the ruling party. Admittedly, the change in the date of the elections may have slowed down the campaign momentum. The opposition could also say that Weah's statement that a Urey can not win was intended to prevent the girl from winning. But these accusations would be moderate political. An investigation in the prosecution might find the statement wrong. The four opposition parties that collaborate are not the only ones in the race. Secondly, the evidence shows that the voting material arrived late from abroad. Losing parties do not easily accept defeat. But a defeat of the party in power could be embarrbading for the president. On the other hand, it would make him more serious about the country's problems and make him listen.

As a result, the voting process would be as follows:

An elector card would be checked at the polling center to determine in which constituency the elector would go. At the police station, the card would be inspected and verified on the list of electors. The voter would receive a ballot listing all the candidates with their photos and political affiliations. The voter would be directed to the voting booth to mark the ballot. The voter would finally place the marked ballot in the box. The voter's card would be punched and the elector's right thumb would be inked to indicate that the elector voted. There would be supervisors to watch the progress. The process should be fair, transparent and peaceful.

The poles should close at 18:00 Liberia time, and the count of votes should begin thereafter. The representative of each candidate must be present during the counting and sign the score sheet. The sheet will be displayed at the voting center for public view. At 9 pm or 10 pm, the preliminary results of the sheets should be announced by the media. The National Electoral Commission should communicate the official results probably by the end of the week.