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August 4, 2019 by Paul Fosse
Photo of Raquel Alusy, used with permission
This story is inspired by a friend from my post who is a successful technical project manager. I've been known to work as the "Tesla guy" since I'm crazy about the car if given the slightest opportunity. So, when my friend Raquel Aluisy asked me for information about the car, I was more than happy to give her a test drive. Explain how model 3 is so special.
After showing her the car, she seemed ready to buy it after fixing a few repaired items under warranty on her Mercedes-Benz C300. I went on vacation for a few weeks and when I got back, I checked what she had done. She had considered buying a Tesla and had found that they were willing to pay her only $ 16,000 for her 3 year old car for which she had paid $ 49,900 when she was new. She did not support this kind of depreciation problem. So she decided to keep the car for a few more years (she can not lose $ 33,900) and decided to take advantage of an extended warranty, as repairs can be very expensive for German cars. .
I agree that depreciation should slow down now, but I was unsure about maintenance costs (which I will study). I explained to her that she can buy a Tesla in a year or two and that it could go if Tesla fails to get self-driving while being approved by a government. If Tesla is able to accomplish what Elon is confident, but most people (including me) are very skeptical about the timing, Tesla's prices will rise rapidly. Now let's take a look at the total cost of ownership (CTP) of the Mercedes-Benz C300 and see how it compares to a Tesla Model 3.
New Mercedes C300 vs Total Cost of Ownership
Captured at Edmunds.com
Captured at Edmunds.com
At first glance, when comparing the new TCO C300 to the one used (which, like Mercedes does not update the look that every 7 years, is virtually identical to the untrained eye), there is little difference between insurance and fuel costs, but significant maintenance differences, repairs, taxes and fees, financing and amortization. The good news is that the taxes, fees, financing and depreciation on the C300 used total $ 17,373, against an incredible $ 37,441 on the new model, a difference of $ 20,000.
The bad news is that Edmunds estimates that the maintenance and repairs of the 3-year-old C300 will cost $ 17,580, about $ 8,000 more than a new car, both because of the warranty and the warranty. makes most of your parts new on a new car. a car of 3 years, the parts are every 3 years closer to their end of life. Although you can probably avoid replacing many maintenance items, such as brakes and spark plugs, on a new car, you will probably have to pay a premium for these items on a used car.
As you can see, buying a used Mercedes costs about $ 12,000 less than the new one and no one can really tell the difference. You can see why the Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) market is so popular for these high end cars! Next, let's add 2 configurations of the 3 Tesla model to the comparison.
Comparison of the total cost of ownership of a Mercedes of opportunity to two models of the Tesla Model 3
I've updated my numbers on Tesla's Model 3 to take into account the new pricing and tax credits available in the United States until the end of the year. . I've also adjusted the amortization to use the estimates of Kelly Blue Book (KBB.com) instead of scaling the depreciation of the S model, but the modification of the Depreciation was of little importance. We can see that the brand image of the brand is guaranteed because you have to earn money to drive this car.
Two factors that could change everything
The above badysis is satisfactory as long as the coming years go well with the sale of Tesla in the niche of the electric car and all the rest, but are there any events that would radically change the situation? Here are two disruptive scenarios that would radically change this badysis.
First, Tesla is able to perfect its Full Self Driving software solution and receive regulatory approval anywhere in the world to allow the car to drive itself. Elon predicted that this will happen next year, and while I have expressed skepticism about this timeline, I think it will probably happen in the next five years. As Elon introduced at the April Independence Day, this will allow people who own a Tesla Full Self Driving Driving to earn around $ 30,000 a year with their car.
Demand for all self-driving Tesla cars is expected to significantly outpace Tesla's manufacturing capacity (as they claim to be limited even today). Elon predicted that the price would be around $ 100,000 for new and used models. That's why he constantly refers to cars as valuable badets.
Image credit: Kyle Field | CleanTechnica
This price increase will not happen all at once, it will happen gradually or suddenly as Tesla demonstrates the progress made, not in its laboratory, but in the half-million cars in circulation capable of managing the EHRs. most requiring replacement. The fact is that if you are trying to buy a Tesla too late (after releasing an impressive software version that convinces the audience that they are about to "solve" the problem of self- driving, the price of new and used vehicles will be reduced … be significantly higher than today.
SecondMore and more companies are offering awesome electric cars, such as the Hyundai Kona and the VW ID.3, the public will begin to understand what most Cleantechnica readers already know: electric cars can meet your needs and not not be a poorer car designed to save the environment but punish the driver, they are actually more fun to drive than other cars. If this realization comes faster than current manufacturers can not secure battery supplies and transfer production to electric vehicles, there will be a considerable oversupply of new and used gasoline and diesel cars.
Buyers may not be able to get the VE they want, because waiting lists will be long, but they can stop buying new gasoline or diesel cars and keep only their existing cars for a few years. This would create a downward spiral in the prices of new and used gasoline and diesel vehicles. It does not matter if you have a gasoline car that is 3 years old or older and has already suffered a significant depreciation, but those who have just purchased a gasoline or diesel powered car are at a significant risk of having extreme depreciation.
Conclusion
So, what should you do? Well, if you are in the market for a new car and an EV meets your needs, buy an EV! But if you are still waiting because of one of the 7 reasons I listed here, keep your eyes open and your ear attentive to the factors mentioned above. If any of these factors occur before all your vehicles are converted to Tesla electric vehicles or others, the cost of upgrading can be considerably higher than today.
On the other hand, if things are progressing slowly, as most players in the industry expect, it is better to wait 5 or 10 years for the price of electric vehicles to drop and there will be no rush to purchase electricity. 'a vehicle. The 2020 elections and the various proposals put forward by the different candidates are another factor to watch out for. If climate change becomes a priority issue like the economy and health care, it can accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. So far, climate concerns have been mentioned only briefly by the main candidates, but this can change at any time.
Use my referral link Tesla to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging on a Tesla Model S, Model X or Model 3, here's the link: https://ts.la/paul92237 (but if any one d & # 39; other helped you, please use his link.).
TCO calculation notes
Keywords: Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-Benz C-Clbad, TCO, Tesla Model 3, total cost of ownership
About the author
Paul Fosse Software Engineer for more than 30 years, first developing EDI software, then data storage systems. Along the way, I also had the opportunity to help create a software consulting company and manage portfolios. In 2010, I became interested in electric cars because gasoline became expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and I became interested in solar energy, mainly because it threatened my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @ atj721 Tesla Investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237
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