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Pundits are still looking at the 1,246-page Brexit trade deal, but the devil is still in the details.
Dozens of UK-EU committees overseeing all aspects of the deal will now have to be put in place, engaging the UK and the EU in semi-permanent Brexit negotiations.
New business travel rules will mean models and musicians may need work visas for Europe. And the economic damage from restoring previously demolished trade barriers could linger for years to come.
While the deal is slim, as expected, there are bright spots, including, experts say, on climate change, aviation and transport.
Here, three Brexologists have shed light on other details they have found in the deal so far.
Catherine Barnard, Professor of European Law, University of Cambridge
On Christmas Eve Boris Johnson said: “We have taken back control of the laws and our destiny. We have regained control of every point and title of our rules, in a complete and unimpeded manner.
Everything is sorted then? No – the agreement shows that it is not that simple.
The effervescent rhetoric failed to mention a set of mechanisms that the new UK-EU trade deal, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), will introduce, with the power to make legally binding decisions.
At the top is the Partnership Council (PC), a political body made up of representatives of the European Commission and British government ministers.
It will consider “any matter relating to the implementation, application and interpretation” of the ACT. It even has the power, in certain circumstances, to modify the agreement itself. Decisions are made by mutual consent, including on cards and titles.
Then comes a multitude of technical committees. There is the Trade Partnership Committee, which can assist the PC, and 10 “trade committees”, which cover issues such as rules of origin and services.
Then there are eight specialized committees covering issues such as air and road transport and four working groups on issues such as motor vehicles and parts and social security coordination.
The staff of the lightened Brussels office in the UK will be very busy.
Much of this reflects many other trade agreements. Yet these bodies, in particular the Partnership Council, will be making decisions that will affect UK businesses for years to come. So how well will the public and its elected officials know what is being decided?
Who will sit on the SC, what is their mandate, and will the agenda and significant minutes be published? The practice of the Joint Committee, the equivalent of the PC under the Withdrawal Agreement, which was chaired by Michael Gove and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, is not promising. The minutes of its fifth meeting, on December 17, 2020, consisted of one page.
Likewise, who will examine the work of the PC and its various committees?
There must be a role for Westminster, but will this extend to decentralized administrations? The ATT provides for a parliamentary partnership assembly, with members from the European and British parliaments, who can be kept informed of the work of the PC and make recommendations to it. Civil society also has a (weak) role.
Taking back control of our laws was at the heart of the Brexit promise. Starting with the scrutiny of the deal on Wednesday, Westminster needs to take a very close look at what is being done on behalf of the UK. It is time for parliamentarians to assert control over the future that has been so strongly promised.
Sam Lowe, Principal Researcher at the Center for European Reform
Beyond tariffs, quotas and fish, the TCA contains a variety of provisions. Among those that have implications for everyone engaged in business travel are the rules governing what Britons entering the EU are and are not allowed to do from 2021.
The TCA allows short-term UK business visitors to enter the EU visa-free for 90 days over a given six-month period, but there are restrictions on what activities they can engage in. Basically, The list of permitted activities shows that while meetings, trade shows and conferences, consultations and research are acceptable, anything that involves the direct sale of goods or services to the public requires a genuine work visa.
For example, from the start of next year, a British model could still travel to Italy for meetings and contacts, but if he wanted to take part in a paid fashion show or photoshoot, he would have to obtain an Italian work visa.
Likewise, touring musicians will likely now need to obtain a work visa (or multiple work visas) if they are to perform in venues across the continent.
Even for these seemingly TCA-authorized activities, all may not be what it seems. Different EU member states have their own immigration regimes, which may allow additional activities or apply other conditions. Austria, for example, requires a work permit for market research. There may also be additional criteria required, such as a recognized qualification.
From January 1, many businessmen are unlikely to be aware of the new restrictions and will continue to act as they did before. They might or might not get away with it. But failure to comply with visa requirements could result in fines, deportation and, in the extreme, barring entry into the EU in the future.
David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy
The climate change measures in the agreement are new and welcome.
Reading trade agreements is not for the foolhardy, as they are written in legal jargon drawing heavily on precedents to such an extent that there is really a reference in the UK-EU agreement to Netscape Communicator 4 software, obsolete since 2000. when it seems like something is new in an EU deal, a check on a previous trade deal will find something similar, or another trade jerk will point out that it was lifted from another obscure source.
Such reliance on precedent partly explains why the rules governing trade in the WTO and in bilateral agreements seem increasingly outdated compared to modern commerce, for example having little say in e-commerce. Fortunately, in at least one area the UK and the EU have innovated and that is the fight against climate change. Earlier EU trade deals spoke of a good game without a lot of substance; This enshrines commitments on reducing emissions, including those from aviation, and implementing carbon pricing. There are also enforcement mechanisms, both domestic and under the trade agreement.
The EU is discussing the implementation of a carbon border adjustment mechanism, essentially subjecting imports to a carbon pricing regime similar to that in force at the national level, in order to ensure the absence of carbon outsourcing of emissions. The details will likely be complex, but the UK should be exempted when trading with the EU, as it has already endorsed carbon pricing in the trade deal, and may even want to follow the EU’s lead. by applying the analysis of carbon emissions to imports into Great Britain. The United States under President Biden is also likely to incorporate climate change measures into new trade deals.
Climate change is not the only global problem for which there is a strong case for importing compliance with national standards and trade agreements that are starting to be addressed. Antimicrobial resistance, linked to the overuse of antibiotics in farm animals, and animal welfare are others. Both are mentioned in the agreement, the parties agreeing to cooperate, but on this occasion without firm commitments.
It’s another thing about trade agreements: they rarely go far enough. They are, after all, primarily about commerce. But on all these issues the UK can and should go further in future agreements.
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