COVID-19: Scientists Predict New Coronavirus May Look Like A Cold In The Future

New Delhi: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may resemble the mild cold-causing coronaviruses currently circulating in humans, according to a study if it becomes endemic and most people are exposed to it. ‘childhood.

The modeling study, published Tuesday in the journal Science, is based on research for the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1.

Analysis of immunological and epidemiological data from these viruses has helped researchers develop a model to predict the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic, as the virus circulates in the general population.

Researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and that almost everyone is infected at a young age.

Natural childhood infection provides immunity that protects people later in life against serious illness, but it does not prevent periodic reinfection, said Jennie Lavine, of Emory University in the United States, first author of the study.

Research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 can develop into a disease of early childhood, where the first infection occurs between ages 3 and 5, and the disease itself is thought to be mild.

Older people could still be infected, but their childhood infections provide immune protection against serious illness, the researchers say.

The speed of this change depends on how quickly the virus spreads and the type of immune response induced by the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, they said.

The model suggests that if vaccines induce short-lived protection against reinfection but reduce disease severity, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic more quickly.

“This model assumes that SARS-CoV-2 immunity works the same as other human coronaviruses. We don’t really know what it would be like if someone got one of the other coronaviruses for the first time in as an adult, rather than as a child, ”Lavine said.

The model predicts that the death rate from infection for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that for seasonal influenza (0.1 percent), once endemic steady-state is reached.

“We are in uncharted territory, but a key take-home message from the study is that immunological indicators suggest that death rates and the critical need for large-scale vaccination may decline in the short term,” said Ottar Bjornstad, professor. and epidimiologist. at Penn State.

He noted that the maximum effort should be to overcome this pristine pandemic on the way to endemicity.

A safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first or second year of vaccine deployment, but continued mass immunization may be less critical once SARS hits -CoV-2 will become endemic, the researchers said.

Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subpopulations can still save lives, they said.

The researchers also noted that while the primary infections in children are mild when the virus becomes endemic, generalized vaccination may not be necessary.

However, if primary infections become severe in children, as in the case of more deadly but contained coronaviruses such as MERS, childhood vaccinations should be continued, added.