Experts predict 125,000 fewer COVID deaths if 50% of the U.S. population begins immunization by March 1

A new report combining forecast and expert prediction data predicts that 125,000 lives could be saved by the end of 2021 if 50% or more of the U.S. population begins COVID vaccination by March 1, 2021.

“Meta and Consensus Predictions of COVID-19 Targets,” developed by Thomas McAndrew, a computer scientist and faculty member at the College of Health at Lehigh University, and colleagues, incorporates data from experts and trained forecasters, combining their predictions into a single consensus forecast. Additionally, McAndrew and his team produce a meta-forecast, which is a combination of a set of computational models and their consensus forecasts.

In addition to forecasts related to the impact of vaccinations, the report includes forecast analysis on a variety of COVID-related issues in the United States, including the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and the prevalence of the disease. variant B.1.1.7, which first appeared in the UK, but is said to spread rapidly in the US

According to the report

• 125,000 fewer deaths expected by the end of 2021 if a rate of 50% or more of the U.S. population begins vaccination by March 1, 2021: McAndrew finds that if more than 50% of the U.S. population begins immunization before March 1, 2021, the consensus median prediction of the cumulative number of deaths as of December 31, 2021 is 520,000. In contrast, if less than 50% of the U.S. population initiates vaccination, consensus median prediction is 645,000. A consensus of subject matter experts and trained forecasters predicts 125,000 (difference between two medians above) of fewer COVID-19 deaths if at least 50% of the population were vaccinated before March 1, 2021 and highlights the importance of increasing the rate of vaccinations across the United States
• Expected increase in hospitalizations, cases and deaths: The team finds that a consensus of experts and trained forecasters predicted, for the week starting January 24 and ending January 30, an increase in the number of pediatric and adult hospitalizations (median = 132,500), an increase in number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 (median = 1,700,000) and an increase in the number of new deaths from COVID-19 (median = 22,400).
• Predicted increase in prevalence of B.1.1.7 variants: The report shows that a consensus of subject matter experts and trained forecasters predict 87% of US samples sent for genomic sequencing in the first two weeks of February which have an S gene drop (present in all B.1.1.7 samples) will be identified as variant B.1.1.7. Currently, according to McAndrew, around 22% of the samples are identified as the B.1.1.7 variant.

McAndrew’s approach to forecasting is different from the traditional approach, he says. Rather than building a computational model to predict COVID cases, deaths and hospitalizations, it asks experts and trained forecasters to predict those targets and combine their predictions into a single consensus forecast.

In addition, it produces a meta-forecast: a combination of a set of computational models and consensus forecasts.

The idea is to combine computer models with human judgment to make more accurate predictions of the American epidemic.. “

Thomas McAndrew, Computer Scientist and Faculty Member, College of Health, Lehigh University