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The world has entered a year which will be far less predictable in its results than the one which has just ended. That’s the stern warning from Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and one of the world’s foremost infectious disease experts.
Farrar argues that even though 2020 has been completely transformed by lockdowns, travel bans, social distancing measures and the deaths of more than 2 million people from Covid-19 around the world, these results were predictable once as details of the disease have been revealed. Basically that won’t be the case for 2021.
“Since last January, we knew that this was a new virus to which we had no immunity. We knew it was passed from person to person, and although it often did not trigger any disease, it could also result in death. Once we knew that last January 2020 became predictable. Unfortunately, we are now entering a year with a much less predictable outcome. The virus evolves and changes, reducing our ability to cope – and that means we’re really going to be exhausted.
Of particular concern to Farrar is the prospect that the immunity provided by current vaccines could decline dramatically throughout the year. The duration of protection is still not known and the discovery is now an urgent goal for researchers, he believes.
“What we must not do is enter the winter of 2021 in the northern hemisphere with waning immunity in people. It would be an absolute disaster. The problem is that we still don’t have long-term efficacy data on these vaccines.
There is therefore an urgent need to launch robust randomized trials, carried out in a transparent manner, to find out the truth. These will reveal how much current vaccines will protect people in the coming year.
“In fact, we need – very quickly – to establish three key characteristics of Covid vaccines. The first is the length of time they provide protection. But we also need to know their effectiveness against current variants and understand how useful vaccination is in reducing the risk of new variants becoming widespread.
Farrar acknowledged that Britain had shown great skill in its vaccine policy and also in the quality of its genomic investigations which quickly uncovered the existence of disturbing new strains of the virus. However, it is essential that the nation shares this knowledge and expertise with other countries and makes a strenuous effort to help countries in Africa, Central and South America and South Asia in their battles against Covid. .
“It’s not charity. It is not philately. This is absolutely crucial for understanding how new variants develop and evolve in the world. It’s an enlightened personal interest, ”said Farrar.
“The world needs to know where the new variants are appearing. If they appear, they will eventually end up in the UK. Yes, we can close our borders and save time. But at some point, if a variant has sufficient biological advantages, it will spread throughout the world and all nations. “
In addition to sharing knowledge and expertise, Farrar argues that ensuring equitable access to vaccines is also essential. Immunizing large numbers of people in a few countries while leaving the virus uncontrolled in large parts of the world would simply allow more variants to emerge in those places. And the more that happens, the greater the risk that the virus will evolve to such an extent that our vaccines, treatments and tests are no longer effective.
Sadly, as these issues air, increasingly bitter national feuds erupt over approaches to how Covid-19 should be approached – in particular, over disputed rights to vaccine supply. This weekend, Britain is engaged in a battle with the EU and some of its member countries, including France and Germany, over access to vaccine stocks. The new variants have drastically changed things and tension is mounting across the world, Farrar says.
“We are now facing increasing levels of vaccine nationalism and it is not in anyone’s best interest because until we are all safe, no one is safe. We need to understand that this is a global problem that needs to be addressed globally. “
The world is balanced between two scenarios, says Farrar. “At worst, vaccine nationalism spreads and we find ourselves in a world of have and have not. New variants are emerging and developing immunity to treatments and vaccines, and we end up getting back into the cycle of Q1 2020 lockdowns. “
“The other scenario is that we are committed to making vaccines, treatments and diagnostics available across the planet. We are reducing the transmission of the virus everywhere, vaccines continue to work, and we are reducing the amount of virus in circulation to such an extent that its progress slows down considerably. We can do it, but only by sharing. “
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