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WASHINGTON – The United States Department of Agriculture, in its preliminary forecast of supply and demand for U.S. wheat for 2021-22, communicated to attendees at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19, predicted reduced supplies, slightly lower total use, and smaller ending stocks compared to 2020 21.
USDA projects wheat production of 1,827 million buses for 2021, just above the turnover of 1,826 million buses in 2020, as more harvested area compensates for an expected lower average yield.
The area seeded entirely to wheat for the crop in 2021 totaled 45 million acres, up 651,000 acres from 2020, but smaller than the 2019 area at 45.5 million acres.
The USDA, in its winter wheat and canola seed report released in January, estimated the winter wheat seed area for 2021 at 32 million acres, up 5% from to 2020 and the first increase in winter wheat area since 2013.
“In contrast, the combined spring wheat and durum wheat plantings for 2021-2022 are expected to be reduced due to the higher expected net yields for corn and soybeans in the northern plains,” the USDA said.
The data inferred a combined spring wheat and durum wheat seeded area of 13 million acres. The combined durum and spring wheat seeded area in 2020 was 13,934 million acres.
The area harvested entirely from wheat in 2021 was estimated at 37.2 million acres, up 0.5 million acres from 2020.
The USDA forecast the all-wheat yield in 2021 at 49.1 buses per acre based on a long-term linear trend. In 2020, the average yield was 49.7 buses per acre.
All-wheat supply for 2021-22 was projected at 2,793 million buses (based on the 2021 production estimate, a carryover of 836 million buses and forecasted imports of 130 million buses. ), down by 181 million buses, or 6%, from 2,974 million buses in 2020-2021.
Projected at 2095 million buses, the total disappearance of wheat in 2021-22 would be slightly down from 2138 million buses as expected for the current year.
“US domestic use is expected to be higher (1,170 million buses versus 1,153 million in 2020-2021), mainly due to increased feed and residual use, as the reduction in wheat-corn spread is expected to increase wheat feed this summer, ”the USDA said.
US wheat exports in 2021-2022 were estimated at 925 million buses, down 60 million buses from the 985 million buses projected for the current year.
The USDA initially forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, to 698 million buses, down 138 million buses, or 17%, from the 836 million buses projected for 2021. This would be the smallest carry-over. all wheat since 2014.
On pricing, the USDA Outlook concluded, “The tighter balance sheet supports an average 2021-22 season farm price of $ 5.50 per bushel, up 50 ¢ from 2020-21.”
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