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Carbon dioxide emissions must fall by the equivalent of a global lockdown roughly every two years for the next decade for the world to stay within safe limits of global warming, research has shown.
Lockdowns across the world have led to an unprecedented drop in emissions of around 7% in 2020, or around 2.6 billion metric tons of CO2, but reductions of 1 to 2 billion metric tons are needed each year of the next decade to have a good the probability of maintaining the temperature rises to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees C from pre-industrial levels, as required by the Paris Agreement.
A study released Wednesday shows that countries were starting to slow their rates of greenhouse gas emissions before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, but not to the levels needed to avoid a climate disruption. Since lockdowns were eased in many countries last year, there have been strong signs that emissions will rise again above 2019 levels, seriously hurting prospects for meeting the Paris targets.
Corinne Le Quéré, lead author of the study, said the world stands at a crucial time as governments pump money into the global economy to deal with the impacts of the pandemic. “We need an emission reduction of about the size of the waterfall [from the lockdowns] every two years, but by completely different methods, ”she said.
Governments must prioritize climate action in their efforts to recover from the pandemic, she said. “We have failed to understand in the past that we cannot have the fight against climate change as a secondary problem. It cannot be a law or a policy, it must be placed at the heart of all policies, ”she said. “Every strategy and every plan of every government must be compatible with the fight against climate change.”
The study joins other research showing that the drastic drop in greenhouse gas emissions associated with the pandemic will have little impact on long-term climate goals and could be followed by a rapid rebound unless the countries don’t take quick action to divert their economies away from fossil fuels. .
“There is a real contradiction between what governments say they are doing [to generate a green recovery], and what they do, ”said Le Quéré. “It’s very worrying.”
Glen Peters, of the Center for International and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Norway, co-author of the article, said structural changes were needed for economies around the world to move away from fossil fuels and other high carbon activities.
“Emissions were lower in 2020 because fossil fuel infrastructure was used less, and not because the infrastructure was closed,” he said. “When fossil fuel infrastructure is used again, there is a risk of a significant rebound in emissions in 2021, as seen in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009.”
The paper, published in the journal Nature’s climate change, shows that many of the world’s major economies were cutting emissions before the pandemic. The Global Carbon Project, a team of scientists from around the world, found that 64 countries reduced their emissions between 2016 and 2019 compared to 2011 and 2015, but 150 countries showed an increase in emissions during the latter period.
Countries must urgently step up their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Le Quéré said. The study shows that the annual rate of emission reductions must be increased by about tenfold, from 160 million tonnes per year in high-income countries before the pandemic strikes.
In low-income countries, there was no real slowdown in emissions between 2016 and 2019 compared to the two previous five-year periods. These countries must also significantly slow their rate of increase in emissions in the future if the Paris targets are to be met.
Joeri Rogelj, a climate lecturer at Imperial College London who was not involved in the study, said governments risked reneging on climate commitments due to the pandemic and the rush to restart blocked economies.
“Governments must use their stimulus smartly and sustainably [but] another analysis has shown that very few governments are seizing this opportunity, ”he said. “Currently, the actions and investments of many governments in response to Covid-19 are driving emissions in the opposite direction.”
Dave Reay, professor of carbon management at the University of Edinburgh, also not involved in the study, said: “Already there are signs that instead of rebuilding better, it is more often about rebuild, whatever. If we are to have a chance to get back on track to meet the Paris goals, the way out of the pandemic must be both global and green. “
– Fiona Harvey, The Guardian
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