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Failure of UN-led talks on Libya to reach a compromise on December elections could endanger a roadmap that had raised hopes of ending a decade of chaos, analysts have warned .
Seventy-five delegates from the war-torn North African country voiced their differences in rowdy meetings in Geneva last week.
But despite an additional day of unforeseen talks, they remain divided on when to hold elections, which elections to hold and on what constitutional bases – a deadlock that threatens to plunge Libya back into crisis.
“No consensus has been reached among members of the LPDF (Libyan Political Dialogue Forum)” on the controversial issue of a constitutional basis for the previously agreed December 24 elections, the UN acknowledged on Saturday.
Oil-rich Libya was plunged into chaos after dictator Muammar Gaddafi was toppled and killed in a NATO-backed uprising in 2011.
Two rival administrations later emerged, supported by a complex patchwork of militias, mercenaries, and foreign powers.
While Turkey supported a UN-recognized administration in Tripoli, the eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar enjoyed the support of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia.
As part of a UN-backed ceasefire agreed to last October, an interim administration was established in March to prepare for the presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24.
The UN mission in Libya, UNSMIL, in its statement on Saturday warned that “proposals which do not make elections possible” by that date “will not be accepted”.
Return to political crisis
But analysts said foreign parties were pushing Libya’s rival camps aside.
“The differences that arose in Geneva were predictable,” said Khaled al-Montasser, professor of international relations at the University of Tripoli.
He identified three trends.
“A first group has asked for the elections to be postponed until next year, a second only wants legislative elections and a third remains attached to the roadmap” which envisages both legislative and presidential elections.
LPDF members were supposed to have agreed on July 1 on the constitutional basis for parliament to pass an electoral law.
“We had a consensus on a draft text … but from the start of the (Geneva) meetings, it was questioned by some members who made new proposals,” a delegate told AFP. asking not to be identified.
They tried to “get out of their commitment to hold elections” on time, he said.
“Orchestrated in advance”
But law professor Jalal al-Fitouri said the divisions were “orchestrated in advance”.
“It is no secret that the (foreign) states which monopolize the Libyan dossier (…) put pressure on those who represent them within the LPDF in Geneva,” he declared.
“Each state supports a particular camp and has a position on how to hold the vote and on the conditions of candidacy.”
By manipulating the process, foreign actors hope to ensure that their favorites come to power and can represent their interests in Libya’s lucrative post-war reconstruction, he added.
Since last year’s ceasefire, the security situation in Libya has slowly improved.
But progress has stalled, especially on another key precondition for the elections: the withdrawal of all foreign forces.
The United Nations has estimated that 20,000 foreign forces, including Russian mercenaries, are still in Libyan territory.
Turkey refuses to withdraw its army, saying its presence is based on an agreement with the previous unity government in Tripoli.
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