After the war of words, are Paris and Ankara at the dawn of a new era?

The Turkish and French presidents pledge to ease tensions after months of insults, but difficulties remain between them, especially over their increasingly competing interests in Africa. At the end of a meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit in June, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that he had agreed with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on the need to relaunch bilateral cooperation and regional consultation.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said after Erdogan Macron’s meeting that Turkey and France are in what he described as a “period of recovery”. French and Turkish leaders have so far been engaged in a growing war of words, competing for international influence.

“We can talk about a reset with France,” says Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economic Studies and Foreign Policy, but he warns against over-optimism about a lasting diplomatic breakthrough.

“It’s a question of the depth of this reset. It’s part of a larger reset Turkey has attempted in terms of foreign relations with the West. However, none of the points of disagreement with France have been resolved, ”Ulgen added.

Libya as a major source of contention

Libya remains a crucial point of tension. France and Turkey supported rival camps in the Libyan civil war, and Paris led international calls for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the North African country.

Last year, Turkish and French warships nearly clashed off the Libyan coast over French claims that Turkey was violating an international arms embargo. But Ulgen says both sides now recognize the need for diplomacy.

“Ankara and Paris realize that progress can be made, if the two are less confrontational and diplomatically work towards some sort of negotiated formula,” Ulgen said.

Potential allies against China

A Turkish presidential adviser has suggested that France and Turkey could expand their cooperation beyond Libya to the rest of Africa, in a bid to contain China’s growing influence.

Ankara is strengthening its presence on the continent, particularly in the Sahel region. But Turkish initiatives to develop ties with former French colonies like Niger and Mali worry Paris, said Jalel Harchouai, senior researcher at the Geneva-based Global Initiative.

Harchaoui warns that the Sahel could become a point of growing tension rather than cooperation.

“There is a real rivalry. There is real competition in the Sahel. France is weakening more and more in the Sahel, all areas that were previously secure such as Chad are fragile. Turkey wants to be present militarily, it is already very present diplomatically, and it is very ambitious commercially.

“We are talking about a time horizon of fifteen or thirty years. So if France sees an opponent in there, I think France is right because there is not enough room for the two former colonizers of the region. “said Harchaoui.

Erdogan as champion of oppressed Muslims

For now, the French and Turkish presidents seem to want to minimize their differences. But that could change with the French presidential elections next year, where Islam’s role in French society will be a campaign issue.

Erdogan presents himself as an advocate for the rights of Muslims around the world and has in the past accused Macron of Islamophobia – an issue Erdogan also uses as leverage in predominantly Muslim African countries, which greatly worries diplomats in Paris. .