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The total number of people with dementia worldwide will almost triple by 2050, researchers say.
The number of cases is expected to increase from around 57.4 million in 2019 to around 152.8 million in 2050, mainly due to population growth and aging.
This “underscores the vital need for research focused on finding disease-modifying treatments and effective, low-cost interventions for preventing or delaying the onset of dementia,” said principal investigator Emma Nichols of the Washington University School of Medicine.
By 2050, 16% of the world’s population will be made up of people over 65. This compares to 8% in 2010, according to the US National Institute on Aging.
The researchers said the biggest increases in dementia are expected to occur in eastern sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East.
While positive trends in access to education globally are expected to lead to a decrease of 6.2 million cases of dementia by 2050, smoking, excess weight and high blood sugar are expected to increase cases of 6.8 million.
The projections, covering 1999 to 2019, are based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study, a set of estimates of health trends around the world.
The results were presented Tuesday at an Alzheimer’s Association meeting, held in Denver and online. Research presented at meetings is generally considered preliminary until it is published in a peer-reviewed journal.
“Improvements in lifestyle among adults in developed countries and in other countries – including increased access to education and greater attention to heart health problems – have reduced the incidence of these problems. years, but the total number of people with dementia continues to increase due to an aging population, ”said Maria Carrillo, Scientific Director of the Alzheimer’s Association.
“In addition, obesity, diabetes and sedentary lifestyles among young people are increasing rapidly, and these are risk factors for dementia,” she added in a press release.
Nichols said these estimates would help policymakers and policymakers better understand the expected increases in dementia and what drives them.
His team used the same data to estimate that Alzheimer’s disease death rates increased by 38% globally between 1990 and 2019. This study was published last year in Alzheimer’s & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association.
Carrillo said the numbers would rise beyond 2050 without effective treatments to stop, slow or prevent Alzheimer’s disease and all dementias. It will affect individuals, caregivers, health systems and governments.
“In addition to therapeutics, it is essential to discover culturally appropriate interventions that reduce the risk of dementia through lifestyle factors such as education, diet and exercise,” said Carrillo.
More information
The US National Institute on Aging has more information on dementia.
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