Air conditioners contribute to climate change, but are essential for those affected by it

As climate change increases the frequency and geographic spread of extreme heat in the United States, air conditioning companies are seeing strong demand for their cooling units – and Covid 19 adds an extra layer of need.

“Not only are people more aware of the heat, they are at home all day,” said Brandon Sommers, spokesperson for Advantage Heating and Air Conditioning based in Salem, Ore. “It’s not uncommon for people to tell us they’ve never needed air conditioning before, and then buy air conditioning in the past two years.”

As the pandemic continues to prevent people from working from home, industry analysts expect users to run their cooling units more often than normal, leading to more frequent and longer replacements. of sales.

“We remain extremely bullish in the residential market,” said Todd M. Bluedorn, CEO of Lennox International, the nation’s leading heating, ventilation and air conditioning manufacturing company, on a July earnings conference call. . “Where uptime has a linear impact on equipment life, hot summers have an exponential impact on equipment life. “

Last summer, people ran their air conditioners 30% more than the year before, Bluedorn said, and between 2016 and 2020 the weather was 5% warmer, he added.

The air conditioning and heating industry has been on the rise for several years, driven by the replacement of older units in homes purchased during the 2000-2007 housing boom and, more recently, by the weather, according to Jeff Hammond , Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc. Capital markets.

“The weather helped,” he said. “Seventy-five to 80 percent of the market are aftermarket units. Hot weather makes new units more difficult and old units need to be replaced.

Temperatures in Portland, Oregon, reached 116 degrees in June, warmer than ever in Dallas and Los Angeles. The scorching weather prompted a power utility based in Spokane, Wash., To warn customers of power outages to control higher-than-usual demand for electricity. Heat waves in the United States and Canada have exacerbated existing droughts, causing powder keg conditions for forest fires.

As greenhouse gases continue to pour into the atmosphere, climatologists expect this extreme heat to become a mainstay. A climate science report from the federally commissioned U.S. Global Change Research Program found that the coldest and hottest daily temperatures are expected to rise by at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit in the most parts of the United States by mid-century, and rise 10 degrees by the end of the century. if greenhouse gases are not significantly reduced.

A June 2019 study by the Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that across the country, the annual number of days with a heat index above 100 degrees will double by the middle of the century, and days with a heat index above 100 degrees. heat above 105 degrees will triple from the end of the 20th century.

But while high temperatures mean increased air conditioning consumption, the use of air conditioners in turn fuels more greenhouse gas emissions.

“It’s a bit of a vicious cycle, because climate change will cause the need for more air conditioning. More air conditioning will result in more greenhouse gas emissions,” said David Gitlan, CEO of Carrier, one of the largest air conditioning and heating companies. in the USA

A June 2020 statement from the United Nations Energy Program revealed that 3.6 billion cooling devices are currently in use. Up to 14 billion units will be needed by 2050 to meet global space cooling needs as temperatures rise. Natural gas and petroleum make up the majority of the energy used to run air conditioning units, according to a 2018 report from the US Energy Information Administration.

Adam Dessler, a professor at Texas A&M University, said anything that traps heat, like refrigerants used in cooling units, contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. But as the world gets warmer, people will need air conditioners.

“If you want to solve climate change, I wouldn’t be worried about air conditioning; I would be worried about shutting down natural gas and fossil fuels, ”he said. “While we should always be working to reduce the carbon footprint, the key is to stop burning carbon and then tackle all the second-order issues.”

Sommers, whose company serves the Willamette Valley area in Oregon, said that with summer heat averages in the 1970s, Oregonians have traditionally not been in the air conditioner market. But during the June heatwave week in the Pacific Northwest, the company received 900 phone calls, three times its average for the season, he said. Overall, June sales are up 150% this year compared to last year, he said.

“Everyone is very busy right now,” he said. “Everyone is on the bridge all the time. “

Scott Park, owner of Quality Heating Electrical & Air Conditioning in Silverdale, Wash., Told NBC News that, on average, 10-15% of customer calls are for air conditioners. But this year, that number has jumped to 50 percent.

“Where air conditioning was a luxury in the past, this year it has been so hot that people are just begging for it,” he said.