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“There is famine now in Tigray. This June 10, 2021 statement from the top UN humanitarian official was the clearest indication to date that a struggling Tigray was facing a serious food emergency. Nearly five million Tigrayans were subsequently placed under surveillance for what constitutes emergency level conditions.
The affected population now falls under the emergency (phase four) and famine (phase five) classification of the famine early warning system network. Famine is declared when households have an extreme lack of food even after using all available coping strategies. It is then that starvation, death, destitution and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition are evident.
The objectives of this article are threefold. First, I give a brief overview of the food security situation in Tigray. For this, I draw on recent reports from the World Peace Foundation and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Given that the Ethiopian government has imposed a complete communications blackout in Tigray, these reports serve as a benchmark to assess the true extent of the humanitarian crisis.
Second, I reflect on the gains made through land rehabilitation and restoration efforts led primarily by the public to put into perspective the current scale of destruction. And tackle the long-term consequences of impending famine on land use and ecosystems in Tigray.
Finally, I look at the World Peace Foundation’s recommendations to help avert the looming humanitarian crisis.
Man-made famines
Research on the world history of famines highlights a double causation. Famines occur as a result of natural disasters, such as droughts. They can also be caused by humans, for example in the context of armed conflict.
Human-caused famine accounts for nearly all documented cases of famine since the late 1960s. Research shows that famines triggered by natural disasters have declined sharply in recent times. The few exceptions in which natural and man-made causes were both to blame include the famine that devastated Tigray and its surroundings in the early 1980s.
Most often, man-made famines involve human agents that wreak havoc in food production processes. This includes the intentional destruction of crops and seeds, agricultural equipment and supplies, such as fertilizers. Human action can also cause the market to collapse and restrict the exchange of products between farmers and consumers. However, such acts are not isolated but usually occur in the context of a deeper strategy of politico-military bodies to use starvation as a means of warfare. This was the case in Tigray.
The people of Tigray, nearly 80% of whom depend on subsistence agriculture, are intentionally starved for the second time in 40 years in order to win a war.
In early August, an estimated 4.5 million people in Tigray were in need of emergency food assistance. There is ample evidence to suggest that Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers and forces in the neighboring Amhara region engaged in the collective destruction of agricultural equipment and assets. They also stole crops and livestock and engaged in activities to prevent farmers from harvesting or plowing farmland.
These actions will have lasting consequences.
Land rehabilitation and restoration
Archaeological records show intensive agricultural activities in the Tigray region for at least 3,000 years. Centuries of continuous use of land to meet food production needs, coupled with a marked drying trend in the region over the past 2,500 years, have reportedly led to large-scale land degradation in Tigray .
Earlier estimates put the size of degraded land in Tigray at 50%. Land degradation refers to the constant loss of the productive capacity of soils. In Tigray, land degradation and often insufficient rains have resulted in recurrent food insecurity. In many cases, this has led to conditions of famine or near starvation.
Over the past three decades, following the end of the civil war of the 1970s and 1980s, largely public-led land restoration programs have received the political attention and implemented on a scale to combat degradation. lands. These were supported by well-planned and well-executed safety net programs.
Research shows that these interventions have met with great success in restoring large tracts of rural land in Tigray. Soil fertility has been greatly improved, and by extension food production capacity.
But there is an important caveat. The types of interventions put in place in Tigray must be continuous and supported. They also require that agricultural activities be carefully planned in advance to take advantage of the fluctuating rainy season, to allow land preparation just before the start of the rainy season and sowing at the start of the rainy season.
The interruption of these activities – as happened this year because of the war – will have prevented farmers from producing food.
And in the long run, the disruption of public land reclamation activities will result in a further loss of the region’s productive capacity.
Details of the destruction on the environmental front are still unclear. But there are indications that the scale of the destruction may pose a threat to rural livelihoods long after the war is over.
For example, the interruption of agricultural activities on land that was regularly plowed will certainly reduce the mobility of water and nutrients and the conservation capacity of the soil. If this is allowed to continue, it would turn fertile ground into ‘abandoned land’. The abandonment of agricultural land is becoming a common problem globally, with serious implications for the environment, including loss of biodiversity and reduction in landscape diversity.
Avoid a humanitarian crisis
The World Peace Foundation has published a series of recommendations to avoid the impending famine in Tigray. These include the cessation of hostilities, unhindered humanitarian access and freedom of movement, and freedom of communication.
But the emphasis is on ending active hostilities and targeting activities essential to the survival of the civilian population.
The Ethiopian government is therefore obliged to provide humanitarian aid. It should facilitate access to areas under the control of the government of Tigray in accordance with international humanitarian law. This obligation also extends to the government of Eritrea, which is also a major player in the war against Tigray.
First and foremost, avoiding the impending famine requires a ceasefire agreement and an unconditional withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray.
And to avoid a full repeat of one of the worst humanitarian crises of recent times, at the very least, an inclusive national dialogue with all relevant political actors must be initiated without further delay.
Daniel Gebregiorgis receives funding from the US National Science Foundation.
By Daniel Gebregiorgis, climatologist, Georgia State University
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