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AAnalysts and experts warn of many years of instability across Africa, potentially leading to wars and political upheaval, as the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic worsens across the continent.
While many of the likely consequences are not yet clear, the recent unrest in southern Africa, the increase in extremist violence in the Sahel and growing instability in parts of West Africa can all be attributed to party to the epidemic, according to observers.
However, there has also been strong leadership and effective action from large organizations that give hope that the worst effects of the pandemic can be avoided.
“It’s a two-part story,” said Dr Comfort Ero, Africa program director at the International Crisis Group. “In the first chapter, the continent seemed more resilient to the pandemic than many more developed regions of the world. There were a lot of fears that everything would go to hell, but it wasn’t. Perhaps the next chapter will see all the things that didn’t play out in 2020 start to unfold. “
Over 7 million cases and 180,000 deaths have been recorded in Africa, totals that most researchers consider to be significant underestimates.
While many have been encouraged and inspired by the response of African countries to the pandemic, led by the newly established African Union Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the economic effects of the pandemic have been drastic.
A recent international study found that Covid-19 could hit Africa harder than any other recent global crisis, including the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Great Recession of 2008 and the Ebola outbreak of 2014.
Ahunna Eziakonwa, director of the regional office of the United Nations Development Program for Africa, said African countries had been disproportionately affected by the economic shock of Covid-19.
“There is a faster recovery elsewhere because the money is pouring into the system. The continent is at a great disadvantage. Many African countries are still pulling out the essential basics, lifting people out of poverty, providing basic education and health services. Now spending and investments are drying up and this is resulting in distress and destitution, ”Eziakonwa said.
Some observers describe a historic divergence between the developed world and Africa as normalcy returns to Europe, the United States and much of the Asia-Pacific region, while African economies falter and people remain without. vaccine for years to come.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, warned in June of “a two-way pandemic … leading to a two-way recovery”. She said: “Africa is already lagging behind in terms of growth prospects. It is a human tragedy and an economic calamity.
The IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 6% this year and the African economy by only 3.2%. Inflation is skyrocketing in many places, with food prices in Nigeria rising by nearly a quarter since the start of the pandemic, pushing 7 million people into poverty. The World Bank said the pandemic had pushed up to 40 million people into extreme poverty, even before a third wave of Covid infections broke out on the continent between May and July.
In South Africa, a million jobs are thought to have been destroyed by a hard month of closure last year, and there has been a significant increase in reports of hunger among citizens of the most industrialized nation. from Africa. In Nigeria, a severe depression drove the graduate unemployment rate to over 40%.
A particularly affected sector has been tourism. Before the pandemic, Africa had the second fastest growing tourism sector in the world, contributing 8.5% of the continent’s GDP and employing 24 million people. “It was really hard. We haven’t had anything for over a year, ”said Boniface Kenn, a Tanzanian guide.
The economic damage inflicted by the epidemic will make it more difficult for governments to meet the aspirations of increasingly globalized young populations, exacerbate tensions in places where competition for scarce resources is already causing conflict and could force some authoritarian regimes. to strengthen repression to avoid a generalization of protest.
“The pandemic has been a major destabilizing force,” said Nic Cheeseman, professor of African politics at the University of Birmingham. “It’s going to disrupt some democracies and some autocracies, but all governments will be grappling with unsustainable debt and less income, and it’s just not being highlighted at the moment. The reality is that the Covid crisis in Africa is yet to come. “
In the Sahel, the economic impact of the pandemic has further weakened administrations that were already struggling to find resources for security forces, and heightened tensions between communities that have helped Islamic extremists break through in recent years. years. Across the region, as elsewhere on the continent, trade routes have been blocked, investments abandoned, and the flow of remittances from foreign workers and the diaspora on which millions of people depend for everything from school fees to food, has been drastically reduced. Aid abroad should also be reduced. Local and national elections have been postponed due to the virus, exacerbating tensions and causing instability.
“People have nothing more to lose. When they are on the edge, they are all the more prone to be violent or instrumentalised by politicians who exploit their anger, and this is a clear and present danger, ”said Eziakonwa, co-author of a study by UN on the impact of Covid on the continent.
There are also tensions in Ghana, long regarded as a model of democracy and stability in West Africa, while an outbreak of vandalism and looting in July in South Africa, one of the most inequalities in the world, has been exacerbated by the pandemic, according to experts. to say.
“A million people have lost their jobs [in South Africa] last year and Covid definitely increased hunger. So there are a lot more desperate people. The lockdown has had a very negative effect on the economy and this is certainly contributing to the number of people involved in the looting, ”said Gareth Newham, head of justice and violence prevention at the Institute for Security Studies. Pretoria. “The trigger was economic sabotage and then there was opportunistic looting for personal gain and by local criminal networks as well. “
Much of the unrest in South Africa was sparked by supporters of jailed former president Jacob Zuma, who sought to exploit the country’s deteriorating economic environment for political ends. But analysts say the violence was a foretaste of the instability the Covid pandemic could leave in its wake, threatening an autocratic and democratic government.
“The concern is that South Africa is a harbinger of what is to come on the continent. It’s going to be uneven, but the whole picture looks terribly worrying, ”Ero said.
Protests have intensified in Eswatini, Africa’s last monarchy, where public sector salaries have been unpaid for months, and where repression and ostentatious consumption by elites have sparked anger.
“We are fighting for democracy, freedom, jobs and food. We are leading a liberation struggle, ”a 26-year-old student leader told Eswatini, who requested anonymity for fear of being arrested.
Eziakonwa said any increase in malnutrition and the likely diversion of resources from immunization programs as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak would have a significant impact on young people and infants.
“It will take the lives of children and it will be unbearable,” she said.
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