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The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban after a US withdrawal has raised the specter of a similar tragedy in the West African state of Mali, where France has pledged a military withdrawal next year.
“Should we prepare for the same scenario as in Kabul? the Malian daily Le Soir de Bamako ran the headline on Wednesday.
Mali is the epicenter of a brutal jihadist conflict in the Sahel in which France has committed troops, planes and drones to strengthen fragile allies.
Paris first intervened in Mali in 2013, pushing back a jihadist advance from the desert in the north of the country.
But Islamists regrouped and spread across central Mali, as well as neighboring countries of Burkina Faso and Niger, exacerbating ethnic tensions along the way.
Malian strongman Assimi Goita led two coups d’état last year. By MALIK KONATE (AFP / File) Thousands of soldiers and civilians have died and more than two million people have been displaced in this impoverished region, despite the presence of thousands of foreign soldiers.
In June, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a major reduction in the French military presence.
France will close its bases in northern Mali in Kidal, Tessalit and Timbuktu by early 2022.
Between 2,500 and 3,000 French soldiers are expected to remain deployed in the vast semi-arid region, against 5,100 currently on the ground.
Mohamed Dicko, a 24-year-old medical student in Bamako, said insecurity in Mali is growing every year.
It is only thanks to the French and UN forces that “the large cities of the north are still under state control”, he declared.
“Without the presence of the French army, a city like Gao can fall in less than half an hour,” he said.
Weak state
The current cycle of violence in Mali began when separatists revolted in the north in 2012, in a rebellion that was later requisitioned by the jihadists.
The Islamists took advantage of the weakness of the government in much of the poor country to take root.
Groups affiliated with Al Qaeda or the Islamic State have also spread to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
But Mali’s government is weak and has a reputation for corruption, and its armed forces are poorly trained and underpaid – a scenario that has parallels in Afghanistan.
“Terror is escalating in the region, but the context of the Sahel and Afghanistan is very different,” said Baba Dakono, a political analyst based in Bamako.
“But there is a common lesson – no matter how much firepower is deployed, military action alone cannot be the solution.”
Map of Mali locating the capital Bamako. By (AFP / File) The ideology explains “only a small part” of the motivations of jihadists in the Sahel, and “political demands and frustrations towards the state” are more important, he suggested.
Some in Mali, including the ruling army, support dialogue with activists in order to find a political solution to the conflict. But France fiercely opposed it.
“We need to open discussions, from the bottom to the top, with all communities, including outcasts of armed groups,” Dakono said.
Blow in a blow
Many commentators are pessimistic.
The army toppled President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020 after weeks of protests against perceived corruption and failure to stop the conflict.
But the initial hopes of a new political dawn and a step towards prosperity have faded.
Jihadist attacks continued and there were few reforms.
Jihadist violence has driven hundreds of thousands of Malians to flee their homes. By OLYMPIA DE MAISMON (AFP) The new strongman, Colonel Assimi Goita, has pledged to organize elections in February 2022. But this deadline already seems difficult to meet.
He did not even mention the date during a televised event to commemorate the first anniversary of the coup on Wednesday. Instead, Goita promised “transparent elections with indisputable results”.
There are also doubts about Goita himself. In May, the colonel sacked the interim civilian leaders the military installed after the August coup, and then established himself as interim president.
France’s Macron blasted the maneuver as a “coup d’etat within a coup d’etat”.
Moussa Tchangari, a civil society leader in Niger, said that like in Afghanistan, a combination of foreign armies and corrupt local leaders cannot win the war in the Sahel.
“This war, if it is to be won, will only be won by drawing up a new political and social contract,” he said.
The agreement must “restore the sovereignty of the people and create the conditions for a life of dignity for the millions of people who are deprived of it today”.
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