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As Nigeria celebrates its 61st anniversary of independence, its citizens are stuck in a general anomie of discouragement. This is due to general insecurity in the country, rising unemployment and the high cost of living.
It is also a time of anxiety, with many measures of Nigeria’s socio-economic progress painting a picture of a nation in great distress. The Nigerian economy has stagnated, growing less than 1% over the past six years, well below population growth of 2.6%. It also has around 40% of the population of around 200 million people living below the poverty line.
The country also faces security and political challenges. Boko Haram insurgents are still operating in the northeast. In the North-West, bandits invade the security forces. In north-central Nigeria, deadly clashes between farmers and herders continue. And separatist and irredentist agitations resonate in the South-East and South-West of the country.
Despite these problems, Nigeria has made substantial socio-economic progress, at least since 1999, when it returned to democracy after decades of military rule. It is also a country with enormous resources that have not yet been fully exploited. The largest of these are educated Nigerian citizens. The country had a literate population of less than 5% at independence. Today, over 60% of the population is literate. In addition, enrollment in higher education continues to increase.
The last 60 years
A review of the past six decades shows that the Fourth Republic, which took off in 1999, was Nigeria’s golden age in terms of economic and social indicators. This reality is, however, difficult to present to the millions of unemployed people who are out of work and struggling to cope with inflationary pressures on food and other basic living needs.
Since 1999, the Nigerian economy has more than sevenfold. This is largely due to the rebasing of the economy in 2014. The saving was found to be 60% larger than previous estimates.
Prior to 2014, Nigeria used 1990 prices and the composition of the economy to determine its size. Yet a lot had changed since then. For example, telecommunications have developed considerably with the introduction of mobile telephony. Nollywood, Nigeria’s film industry, has also grown and evolved into a more professionally organized and managed sector.
Nigeria moved from a lower income status to a lower middle income status, based on national income per capita, during the Fourth Republic. It’s based on World Bank rankings. The other countries in this category are Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia, India, Iran and Ukraine.
Economic difficulties
Nigeria’s economic woes began in the mid-2010s. Nigeria’s economic fortunes are closely linked to oil prices which fell sharply between 2014 and 2016.
The World Bank has described the 70% drop during this period as one of the three largest declines since World War II and the longest since the 1986 supply collapse.
In response, the Nigerian economy, which had recorded an average growth rate of 6.68% between 1999 and 2015, has plunged in and out of negative numbers since 2016. During this period, it entered a two-way recession. times. . Cumulative growth since 2016 is on average less than 1%.
Nigeria has taken steps to reduce its dependence on oil. These measures include reviving the agricultural sector as well as reducing the government’s dependence on oil revenues through tax revenues from other sources. They have not yet paid. And the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the economic downturn, plunging further into unemployment and poverty.
The Nigerian government has invested in agriculture and developed economic programs for other sectors, progress has been hampered by inflationary pressures, low oil prices and a weak currency. The government’s inability to stop security crises in several states has also affected agricultural productivity. Other factors include the government’s inability to articulate a clear economic program for the country. In addition, its monetary and fiscal policies favoring double exchange rates and restrictions on foreign trade by closing borders have limited recovery and growth.
A national call to action
Nigeria needs national leadership with the understanding and ability to set the tone and direction for national growth and development. This must integrate all citizens, whatever their ethnicity or geopolitics, in a grand vision of a collective dynamic of growth.
The absence of such political leadership deprives the country of the possibility of meaningful growth and critical citizenship.
Nigeria remains a country with great potential. Its fountain of possibilities is found in its growing population of educated citizens. The educated population at this very moment in the country’s history is at the threshold or at the point of national acceleration. One example is the country’s burgeoning tech ecosystem, largely led by young people. This is to a point contiguous with those of the Asian Tigers before their rapid transformation into the developed world and high income status.
All the fundamentals are indicative of a country on the verge of a great leap forward, the role of an enlightened and well-educated population is crucial in this process.
Despite the limitations of the education sector, Nigeria has over 190 universities, the largest university and tertiary sector in Africa. The country produces millions of graduates each year, creating the most educated workforce on the continent.
This growth represents both a challenge and an opportunity. It will be a challenge and a huge economic burden if productive opportunities are not found for their engagement. As employees, these millions of educated people can be harnessed to boost Nigeria’s economic growth, thereby promoting social stability.
Political leadership
Nigeria’s challenge is not that its political leadership has been corrupted, but that its ability to effectively govern the country is limited. Nigeria needs a modern political administration where the state does not deal with maintaining the status quo and simply allocating existing economic values for project and self-aggrandizement.
The state should be reoriented and deliberately oriented towards a broader interpretation with an emphasis on rapid economic growth and the provision of public goods that enable citizens to become meaningful actors in the overall positive transformation of their society.
Such determined action on the part of national leaders, who must be clearly reformist, is needed to change the path of low economic growth. It is also necessary to promote sustained productivity gains in the country’s economy to generate growth of 6 to 10% on average per year. Such growth is what will allow Nigeria to triple and possibly quadruple its economy over the next 10 to 15 years, a repeat of the first 20 years of the Fourth Republic.
Inevitably, a growing economy represents the best way to address many of the social and economic challenges that Nigeria currently faces in its seventh decade of independence.
Terhemba Wuam is not working, consulting, owning stock, or receiving funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has not disclosed any relevant affiliation beyond her academic position.
By Terhemba Wuam, Professor of Economic History, Kaduna State University
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